Ended 2018 Mayoral Campaign Forumafia (Coolpool Elected Mayor. Everybody Wins.)

Anatronman

Well-Known Member
Member
irl shit keeps getting in the way of reading back through this game, but I will just point out that both actions against Tirin fizzling is almost impossible with a single role. For both TC and I to be telling the truth, either Tirin would have to be a bulletproof Godfather or would have to coordinate two roleblocks. Barring the possibility that everyone alive is a roleblocker and isn't telling us, I don't see how TC and I could both have failed our actions.
 

Tirin

God-Emperor of Tealkind
Moderator
I can't tell if Tirin is gonna manage to get us to lynch our cop when he's scum or if TC's hoodwinked us.
I've had an awful day today, but I will still make a post. I guess i'll say that i'm starting to think less about Anatron being scum and more towards TC/Tirin, but that could be conversation bias. If Anatron is scum then I bet he reckons letting you two butt heads is perfect. Obviously this has ended up being a comment that doesn't say much but I can't commit to a train of thought atm.
I'm pretty confident in TC being scum, because he hasn't said anything as a cop that scum couldn't, and has made inconsistent claims that nobody can support aside from Dunsparce saying "Well, gee, I'm a townie so he must be a cop!" He's said that he's a variant cop and that his investigate is one-shot (see page 5), but the way he's acting and the claims that he's pushed imply that he used his investigate again tonight. Or, perhaps I should say "used his investigate".

irl shit keeps getting in the way of reading back through this game, but I will just point out that both actions against Tirin fizzling is almost impossible with a single role. For both TC and I to be telling the truth, either Tirin would have to be a bulletproof Godfather or would have to coordinate two roleblocks. Barring the possibility that everyone alive is a roleblocker and isn't telling us, I don't see how TC and I could both have failed our actions.
Actually, if I were a Godfather I simply would have shown up as a townie instead of giving TC an inconclusive result - in which case you guys would probably all be fucked.

But, well... yeah. In essence, two of the three of us are telling the truth, and the other is (almost certainly) lying. I can verify that you hit me, and also why I didn't die; your claim means that you could be scum, but I think scum would have a serious issue with coming forth to say "I am a one-shot Vig", and since somebody else has to have a kill ability for you to be telling the truth that person is either scum or a Vig who can counter-claim and thus smartly end this off here. TC's claim (if he is a townie) requires that a townie decided to roleblock a cop, or presupposes that I am scum who either has two roleblocks or has a roleblock and is bulletproof - and in the latter case, Stealthy probably wouldn't put a Vig into the game to begin with.

I think it's pretty clear which of those scenarios is more likely, especially given how TC has taken to saying less and less while promising to say more. Lynch TC. If we've got no roleblocker, I don't see how it could even be possible that he's not scum.
 

Colonel Thunder

Renowned Blunderer
Member
Lunch break post:

Lynch Tirin mafia: gg



Lynch Tirin town, there's roleblocker:

RB has at least 1/3 chance of RB kill

If mafia opts out of killing in effort to frame, TC can prove things with cop information

mafia has less than 2/3 chance of killing cop, and RB remains

mafia has less than 2/3 chance of killing RB, and proven cop remains if RB killed



Lynch Tirin town, no roleblocker/TC is scum:

TC saying who's innocent or scum doesn't matter since lylo

TC saying what someone's ability they used is the cop test, but he could maybe guess so it's not perfect


We lynch TC, TC mafia: gg

We lynch TC, TC is cop:

confirms existence of RB but could be town or not

RB (assuming its town) has at least 1/3 chance of RBing kill

mafia can opt out of killing with no repurcussions since cop dead

It is lylo and we have zero confirmed town except probably dunsparce
 

Colonel Thunder

Renowned Blunderer
Member
And why would I shit all dover myself early this day phase by pretending to misinterpret a message I never received? Don't tell me that was a scum cover up move, because I'm pretty sure it just made me look stupid and hurt my case
 

Tirin

God-Emperor of Tealkind
Moderator
Regarding abilities I have a cycle that resets after a number of days. See my initial roleclaim, pretty sure I said I had a set of charisma related abilities
Somehow, I'm not super confident about "It resets after one day". While it doesn't precisely contradict what you said earlier, it definitely calls it into question; a Cop who gets to Cop every day and have other options is just an even stronger Cop, and you've been using the apparent power of your abilities to justify outlandish theories in the name of game balance - which you seem to understand about as well as I'd expect from the games you've moderated to date.

And why would I shit all dover myself early this day phase by pretending to misinterpret a message I never received? Don't tell me that was a scum cover up move, because I'm pretty sure it just made me look stupid and hurt my case
Because you've been playing this game like strange and incompetent scum prettymuch the entire way through. Despite that, it's taken this long for somebody to sink their fuckin' teeth into you, and that's mostly because your claims have been a seething mass of contradictions. Gonna make a few corrections to your brief analysis, by the way; they'll be in teal. And also go into the detail that it deserves.

Lynch Tirin mafia: gg


Lynch Tirin town, there's roleblocker:

RB has at least 1/3 chance of RB kill

If mafia opts out of killing in effort to frame, TC can prove things with cop information If roleblocker is scum, TC gets blocked and looks hella sus. If a town roleblocker hits TC because they're suspicious, he gets blocked - but that doesn't prove he's not scum, because we're still at lylo. TC cannot prove anything unless his targets are verified, and because we're still in lylo we still have the bolded problem below from the perspective of all other players.

mafia has less than 2/3 chance of killing cop, and RB remains

mafia has less than 2/3 chance of killing RB, and proven claimed cop remains if RB killed



Lynch Tirin town, no roleblocker/TC is scum:

TC saying who's innocent or scum doesn't matter since lylo

TC saying what someone's ability they used is the cop test, but he could maybe guess so it's not perfect


We lynch TC, TC mafia: gg


We lynch TC, TC is cop:

confirms existence of RB but could be town or not

RB (assuming its town) has at least 1/3 chance of RBing kill

mafia can opt out of killing with no repurcussions since cop dead TC assumes lack of info roles here for unknown reasons.

It is lylo and we have zero confirmed town except probably dunsparce Dunsparce is 80%* likely to be town, or is confirmed if we are sure that Bob redirected Riyant to himself (*80% assumed from 2 scum + 1 killed player on night 1, leaving 5 potential targets that make sense, one of which is TC)
 

Colonel Thunder

Renowned Blunderer
Member
Me as scum also assumes the Jeroth role is a scum role, and is partnering with TC. (or doesn't exist which is both stupid and a very risky name claim on my part). That is a very unlikely flavor choice, and it ignores the extra info Stealthy accidentally gave us. As polite as it is to ignore it, we know the remaining scum has to be the Tirin role. Such a role would also explain the relative OPness that Tirin has already claimed to have.

Lastly, the Hound was trying to lynch me the entire game. While he's a new player, that would be a really, really dumb thing to do as early as he did it.
 

Tirin

God-Emperor of Tealkind
Moderator
Me as scum also assumes the Jeroth role is a scum role, and is partnering with TC. (or doesn't exist which is both stupid and a very risky name claim on my part). That is a very unlikely flavor choice, and it ignores the extra info Stealthy accidentally gave us. As polite as it is to ignore it, we know the remaining scum has to be the Tirin role. Such a role would also explain the relative OPness that Tirin has already claimed to have.
I don't think that even the Tirin role can justify what you and Anatron have been suggesting - but I can at least verify what Anatron did last night. Given, cough, the actual partnership that you and Riyant ran for this election, it would be pretty meta-flavorful for that role to be scum. You're right, though, in that I couldn't imagine it not being included.

I also don't think that we can assume that, because Stealthy made that evident mistake, the Tirin role must be scum. Fixating on that when the only person suspected to have been Tirin for the entire game is Dunsparce (Riyant mentioned that somewhere on page 5 or 6, I believe?) while you're pushing a lynch on me doesn't make sense - and as a matter of flavor, it also doesn't really work. When the fuck have I teamed up with you?


Lastly, the Hound was trying to lynch me the entire game. While he's a new player, that would be a really, really dumb thing to do as early as he did it.
No, actually, it would be a remarkably good way to go back and say "Clearly I can't be scum, I got a lynch put on me by [the other scum player] on Day 1". You know, except for how nobody took it more seriously than "he's a new player being dense".
 

Tirin

God-Emperor of Tealkind
Moderator
I can't say I'm surprised by TC recusing himself, because just about everything he ends up saying is inaccurate or an all-but-guaranteed lie*, but... I'm in prettymuch the same boat. There's not much else to say beyond the case I've presented. Go at it.

*Again, per that "no roleblocker" assumption, which I'm now inclined to stick with because nobody at all has come forward about it.
 

AndyM03

Well-Known Member
Member
Ahh fuck, Stealthy posted that at ~9am for me, so didn't really have a chance to post, been super busy at work. I have been reading though and been super conflicted over the discussion, but only skimming. I've now done a far deeper read. I think i've come to a conclusion. One I should have come to like, wayyyy earlier. Full apologies to everybody. There's been some key nuggets dropped that I really can't believe i've missed. Not only do I think Tirin has been uncharacteristically easy on me today, (I've made some not great posts imo),
-Andy won't reveal his role (I get you there, buddy)
Tirin stated this the night Anatron claims to have tried to kill Tirin. I'm dense as fuck and have some reason to believe that Tirin is townie. Nobody has come forward as a role blocker, and it seems like the only way Tirin could have survived last night is if he is Coolpool.

I don't have as much to contribute as those with power roles, but I will say that the objectives of the Fuck Dunsparce party have been fulfilled ahead of schedule and I only have one chance to be any more helpful to the Town beyond that.

In absence of a counter claim, I choose to "believe" TC despite his unconventional Day I for an info role (lynching a hunch takes away the Cop's main claim to credibility). As such, my greatest suspicions are Bob, Andy, Jeroth, and Tirin.
Anatron claiming one shot Vig here. Has anybody quoted this? I feel pretty confidant believing that he's somewhat pro town now, it's a perfect, well intentioned hint. It would take some forward planning for Anatron to pull this if he was scum, not that he couldn't do that obviously, but more likely the bloke is being genuine.

Regardless of whether or not TC is townie or scum, Dunsparce is surely confirmed town. It's classic for scum to *guess* or *investigate* real townies, (though not without risk), or if TC is a townie, then his word is honest.

So that leaves TC, assuming Tirin is Coolpool, and that Coolpool is a townie. On the other hand, Stealthy is pretty creative. The Walrus role was really cool. There is a possibility that Coolpool is the last remaining scum. However, I think this is less likely, but it would be a great way to fuck me up as a player.



I don't like TC claiming to have an ability on a cycle, it makes more sense for him to have a variety of abilities, of which he's claimed none of. I haven't liked TC's behaviour all game until he helped get Bob killed, but upon reflection he didn't even join that lynch. Tirin has been normal to me, even starting to agree with Jeroth against me, until last night, where I think I saved him. He has yet to say anything against me since (Though clearly TC has been a louder player), and the sentence I quoted before adds to this change of behaviour, where he kind of paints me in a more positive light.

I think TC, in the spirit of the game, has tried to fuckin bamboozle us gents. I think he might be scum. And if he isn't, then I believe it is surely Tirin. This is a shift from my opinion at the start of the day, where I thought it was 100% either Anatron or Tirin.

I would like to wait for someone to claim Coolpool, since it's what a big part of this analysis relies on. However it's night time for me and the day will end my time tomorrow morning when I start work.

Lynch TC
 
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Dunsparce

Well-Known Member
Member
Motherfuck, this is like god damn 12 Angry Men. It seemed so cut and dry to me that Tirin was scum, but everything got slowly peeled away to the point that I'm almost willing to lynch TC instead.

Unlynch Tirin

I'll hammer TC if we get to the end of the day, but I still think there's more to be said. First of all, apparently two night actions were attempted on Tirin, and both failed. Is it really such a stretch to say he might have some type of passive defense ability that roleblocks anyone who targets him? That seems like a likely explanation. The alternative is that TC is a scum roleblocker and targeted Anatron. Another possibility is that Anatron himself is lying and he's planning to get Tirin lynched tomorrow.

I would like to wait for someone to claim Coolpool, since it's what a big part of this analysis relies on. However it's night time for me and the day will end my time tomorrow morning when I start work.
I'm Coolpool. Since my secondary wincon is impossible to reach now, I'll go ahead and reveal my role since I can only hope to get a half-victory at this point. I'm a 'pro-town jester,' meaning that I have the goal of reaching a town victory as well as getting myself lynched at some point. But now I can't do that since, against all probability, everyone is convinced I'm town (fuck you, TC).

I don't have any special abilities, just the weird win condition.
 

Tirin

God-Emperor of Tealkind
Moderator
Not only do I think Tirin has been uncharacteristically easy on me today, (I've made some not great posts imo),
Fair point; TC's been occupying my mind prettymuch all day, on account of being a claimed cop who hasn't actually given us anything - and, in fact, seems to be giving us something that isn't possible.

Tirin stated this the night Anatron claims to have tried to kill Tirin. I'm dense as fuck and have some reason to believe that Tirin is townie. Nobody has come forward as a role blocker, and it seems like the only way Tirin could have survived last night is if he is Coolpool.
I'm not Coolpool, but I was doctored last night.

Anatron claiming one shot Vig here. Has anybody quoted this? I feel pretty confidant believing that he's somewhat pro town now, it's a perfect, well intentioned hint.
That's what has me pretty convinced of him being a townie, especially because I can verify that he did target me last night. While it's impossible to rule out that the remaining scum player may have two night actions, I'm really at a loss to what the second could be - and in any case, actually saying "I'm a one-shot Vig and I targeted you" would be an insanely ballsy play for the last scum.

Regardless of whether or not TC is townie or scum, Dunsparce is surely confirmed town. It's classic for scum to *guess* or *investigate* real townies, (though not without risk), or if TC is a townie, then his word is honest.
Agreed. As I mentioned, even statistics-wise with the assumption that TC is a Cop, Dunsparce is practically guaranteed to be a townie. It's not literally perfect, but a 98% chance or whatever is enough to go on for me.

I think TC, in the spirit of the game, has tried to fuckin bamboozle us gents. I think he might be scum. And if he isn't, then I believe it is surely Tirin. This is a shift from my opinion at the start of the day, where I thought it was 100% either Anatron or Tirin.

Lynch TC
My not being Coolpool aside, I think that you're absolutely right on TC.

I'll hammer TC if we get to the end of the day, but I still think there's more to be said. First of all, apparently two night actions were attempted on Tirin, and both failed. Is it really such a stretch to say he might have some type of passive defense ability that roleblocks anyone who targets him? That seems like a likely explanation. The alternative is that TC is a scum roleblocker and targeted Anatron. Another possibility is that Anatron himself is lying and he's planning to get Tirin lynched tomorrow.
I do not have a passive defense to the best of my knowledge (though, thinking on it, that would also be hella flavorful - "as debate moderator you are not subject to being targeted and block night actions against you"). I have no idea why TC's action on me would have failed, and he didn't show up in my self-watching; I can verify that Anatron did, as did the now-unfortunately-dead Riyant, which explains why I'm not dead today. I don't think that Anatron is lying about this on his end, but given how fucked night actions seem to have been in this game I'm not willing to excuse the possibility.

I'm Coolpool. Since my secondary wincon is impossible to reach now, I'll go ahead and reveal my role since I can only hope to get a half-victory at this point. I'm a 'pro-town jester,' meaning that I have the goal of reaching a town victory as well as getting myself lynched at some point. But now I can't do that since, against all probability, everyone is convinced I'm town (fuck you, TC).
That's actually pretty fucking funny, I'm not gonna lie. Shame you don't have any abilities, but it seems pretty damn flavorful to me. I'd guess that means that one of the remaining roles, presumably Shadow, has the goal of keeping you alive; all the more reason for Andy not to reveal himself.

Unfortunately, this might be my last post for the day phase because I've got work at 9pm my time (in around four hours) until about 1am or 1:30, by which time it'll be over. I'll see if I can squeeze something in before I leave if people post and reveal more info, but as-is that's prettymuch what I've got for the day anyway.
 
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