Active Jeroth RWBY Mafia [Day 3]

Anatronman

Well-Known Member
Member
I'm just taking information at face value until someone offers me proof otherwise. I don't see the Buddy claim honestly coming from Mafia members with such little pressure on them. Danny's story is most likely not going to stop me from voting him or Dach if it seems like they're more likely scum than my other options. I'm not dissuaded by you drawing lines between me and the people who posted above me.
 
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Danny

Guest
Unregsistered User
@Walrus thanks for the rule confirm, I guess I can't character name after all.

I easily deflected the few accusations that were already on me.
With Walrus so close to a lynch already, there was no pressure for me to make a buddy claim, or to even change my lynch.

As a mafia play, my claim doesn't make sense, because it makes me a prime target to be lynched in the day as a pretty good informational lynch; when I flip town Dach is cleared. If I flipped Mafia I'd just be a dumb Mafia bringing attention to myself day 1 for absolutely no reason; which is not how I play when I am mafia.

Likewise, I don't buy Andy making the claim and Cyon confirming it as a good Mafia play, because it links them. If there was a vigi for example who suspected they are mafia, it only takes one to flip mafia to out the other one.

Assuming not a bastard game, I am therefore forced to assume we have character pairings represented in the roles we have been given, and that we have been gifted 4 semi-confirmed town. Right now, I'm lynching firedemon because he's quiet and I don't have a better target; the Mafia loves a town that doesn't talk to each other because the more people are forced to talk the more likely it is for inconsistencies to appear and be pointed out. (although, FD could just be busy and maybe this'll smoke him out.)
 

Easy

Right Honorable Justice
Member
I lynched you, you changed your current lynch to me with no posts of argument or discussion inbetween. If that's not what defines a counter lynch, then I apologise, but that was the order of events.
I was joining the train of joke lynches that started off the day and simply looked for a sentence to go along with it. I saw two lynch Walrus' on the page I was reading and called you a bloodthirsty dog, which was pretty clearly an exaggeration but I also thought it might be good to note so I rolled with that. I was quickly corrected that someone else was the first to get it over 2 lynches. If that doesn't tell you the amount of thought that went into my lynch (which is normally a serious accusation besides, y'know, joke day 1 lynches) then I dunno what to tell you buddy.
And definitively saying it wasn't a joke when part of my hunch and arguments against Dunsparce was me saying it was pretty clearly a joke, which you seem to have ignored, makes me a lot more suspicious of you.
[REDACTED]

...

So. Man, but I was gonna rip on you in this post. Because my order of events included "you found out out your lynch was based on a false premise, called it a joke and un-lynched; I made no comment; you kept revisiting your erroneous suspicion that was alleged to have been a joke; I lynched your ass." Calling it a "joke lynch" implies that you didn't believe you had particular cause for suspicion in the first place, which was at odds with your subsequent behavior.

Then I realized that the particular post I'd read (on my phone, for what it's worth), at the time, in between making sick jumps and tearing up fresh powder on my (totally bitchin') legal-weed-tokin', hot-tub-brew-guzzlin' Colorado snowboarding trip, that was so at odds with your earlier claims as to make me swing the lynch-noose over your way, was written by Anatronman, and not Andyman - hence the Australia reference. (Yeah, that it wouldn't have been the proper "AndyM03" in either case was something that never even crossed my mind, cause we've all failed to find enough other friends to use up effectively all of our free time for so long, falling back on this nearly decade-long circle of one-time pretty-amusing cartoon series fans to consume the gap between the demands of labor obligation, and any diversion afforded to individual social ability, that seeing "AndyM03" makes me think of "Andyman" even nowadays, and not the other way around.)

Also, I wouldn't say you ruined OPM Mafia with your catastrophic failure to realize your own alignment. That moment will go down in the annals of both forum meme and Mafia history, immortalizing the game itself by proxy. As the GM, I have no complaints - though, this would have been true either way.

Anyway. To business.

If @AndyM03 , @Danny , @Dachande , and @Cyonica are all on the level, then we've got four Mason-type roles outed here already. That's probably half the Town or more, so I find it unlikely. I want to investigate further, but there are only two reasonably reliable ways to do this: Probe for flavor details, or look at death reveals. Since we're most likely going to hit LyLo at Day 3, unless we successfully lynch scum at least once or Doc(?)-save at least twice before Day 4, the time to start using any information we've been able to gather is now, and probing for flavor details is both against the spirit of the game, and pushes the boundaries of the rule against revealing character names.

...that said, I'm still going to factor some (inferred) flavor details into my consideration here. I'm expecting a RWBY and JNPR Town. I'm expecting that at least one of the Mason-esque claims is legitimate, and probably consists of two JNPR members. The killfeed will most likely soon tell us whether the second reasonably-likely potential pairing is RWBY or JNPR; this is relevant, because (although it can't be said with full confidence, as the flavor of this game isn't necessarily strictly-maintained): Of all the possible pairs of characters having a special connection that might translate in-game to a Mason-type alignment-knowledge type role, each Townie in the game can either confirm or rule out, based on the role they have, at least one of: Weiss/Blake, Ruby/Yang, Jaune/Pyrrha, and Ren/Nora. It's guaranteed that of the next three Townies to die, two of them will come from separate pairings. (Or three, if we're lucky.) It's against the spirit of the rules here for any player, if Town, to indicate which of these pairs they may belong to, but process of elimination will help determine whether any of our alleged Masons are lying from there. If you're a character in one of these pairings, still alive, and at least one member from each of two other pairings than your own was killed, then you're either one of the Masons, or you know that two of the four players tagged above are lying...

Or
scum has been forced to nightkill one or more of those four players.

Right now, there are at least three other Townies, additional to myself of course, who currently have knowledge of: A) which of the above character pairs they're a part of, and B) that this is not a potential Masonite pair. Out of us four, one or more will live through the next three Townie deaths.

Scenario 1: All Masonite claims made were true. This is worst-case for you, the surviving non-Mason, yourself, since it most likely means that the scum has killed off the second character from your own pairing, and both characters from the second non-Masonite one. There are two more intact pairs, apart from yours, that could still be Masons. Each of the Mason pairs can trust their own partners, but you still can't know if any of them were lying or not. Only the scum know for sure that you're a Townie, making you the easiest person to lynch at this point. They just have to convince one of the Mason pairs to go along with it, after all.

Scenario 2: One of the claims was false. This means that there weren't four, but six non-Masonite Townies to begin with. At least two of the surviving Townies can now say with confidence that one of the claims was false, because they A) know that the pairing they belong to isn't Mason-like, and B) have watched death reveals from two other pairings than their own show that these pairings couldn't be Mason-like. If the player who has the Ruby role, for example, knows that Ruby/Yang Masons isn't a thing, then seeing both Weiss and Ren come up non-Mason means that Jaune/Pyrrha are the only roles likely to have a Mason-like arrangement, so there are two scum players in the group of four Masonite claimants. Depending on what happens between then, and the next lynching, there could be one more or one fewer Townies with that kind of knowledge remaining when the time to vote comes around, plus two Masons.

Scenario 3: Both claims were true, but scum nightkilled one of the Mason-like groups. No guarantee of finding out whether the other pair was lying or not based on death reveals, but that's fine. The day after one of the Masonites is killed, the whole rest of the Town knows to remove the victim's partner from their lynch pool.

Mind you, all of this assumes that any Mason-like pairs would be made up of the duos above. It's a pretty safe bet, but not ironclad. It also assumes @Dachande claims to know @Danny 's alignment, as Danny claims to know his. @Dachande , can you confirm or deny this definitively?

Unlynch Andy.
 

Dachande

Fresh Meat
Member
i have no idea of his alignment thats all i can say whether he knows mine or how is another question.
 
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Danny

Guest
Unregsistered User
i have no idea of his alignment thats all i can say whether he knows mine or how is another question.
Looks like the information I was gifted is one way.
I did say previously I can't communicate with Dachande at night, but I was not aware he was unaware of my alignment.

Again, throwing a fake claim like this would be a really dumb move for Mafia, since it clearly puts me under suspicion, particularly since a negative from Dachande makes my situation worse, so I'm just going to have to maintain that it is, in fact, true. But I would also like to say: If I wasn't me, I'd lynch me at this point, just for the information.

If I get lynched today, I will flip town, and that makes Dachande the natural mafia night kill, to get rid of a confirmed townie. But this reveal will also help us in that it may semi-confirm andy/cyons claim, I'm willing to believe that there is more then one mason group.
In this situation, we would lose two townies, instead of one.

Mafia has no urgent need to kill me, because of the suspicion already on me, the town will probably do it for them.
So I suggest a logical step would be to ask any role blocker to block me, or any investigator to investigate me.

Since I suspect I'll be lynched for information alone, I'm going to sum up my thoughts.

Easy is right on the money, I'm usually suspicious of easy since he plays quiet, but I think he's town.
Since Andy claimed the mason situation before I got a chance to mention it, (although I did hint at it before he said anything, just not in an solid way) and thanks to what easy posted about the possible pairings, I am willing to accept that the likely of there being more than one set of players with roles designed to cooperate is highly likely, and that I guess it was balanced somewhat by making mine a one way deal.

Anatron doesn't set off any alarm bells for me yet.

13th has been quiet, he only made one post to lynch walrus and has silently let town ruin itself so I'd watch him, and if I didn't think I was going to die, I'd try and pressure him into doing anything.

Because I will flip town, I'm vouching 100% for Dachande, so don't waste abilities killing him, or blocking him, put your focus elsewhere, maybe consider protecting him just to stop mafia making the town weaker.

I'm happyish with walrus so far, nothing really setting off any alarm bells.

Dunsparce has been aggressive, but not uncharacteristically so, my current guess is town.

I believe Andy/Cyon are legit, the odds of them being scum buddies together two games in a row is very small, and to the play of bringing up the mason thing and confirming each other would be too risky for the mafia, when a simple investigation or vigi could break that so easily, so that gives you 3 confirmed townies if I get lynched today.

Firedemon hasn't said enough, so my lynch remains in the hope he will say or do something.

Shizno seems to want to keep conversation going, my gut says pro-town right now.
 

Anatronman

Well-Known Member
Member
But I would also like to say: If I wasn't me, I'd lynch me at this point, just for the information.

Because I will flip town, I'm vouching 100% for Dachande, so don't waste abilities killing him, or blocking him, put your focus elsewhere, maybe consider protecting him just to stop mafia making the town weaker.

, so that gives you 3 confirmed townies if I get lynched today
I came here to lynch you when I saw Dach's post, you convinced me not to lynch you, and then you convinced me to lynch you again.

Lynch Danny

I'm weary of Easy's wall of death. I've seen him do it as Mafia, I've seen him do it as town. Good points as usual, but not to the point of putting him above suspicion.

Dunsparce is sliding by while more important things happen, as is FireDemon. Input from these players is necessary before the day closes with a lynch.
 

Easy

Right Honorable Justice
Member
Again, throwing a fake claim like this would be a really dumb move for Mafia, since it clearly puts me under suspicion, particularly since a negative from Dachande makes my situation worse, so I'm just going to have to maintain that it is, in fact, true. But I would also like to say: If I wasn't me, I'd lynch me at this point, just for the information.
You wouldn't, because if it turned out that you were actually Town then...
I will flip town, and that makes Dachande the natural mafia night kill, to get rid of a confirmed townie.
...that. Weirdly enough, the most solid argument for lynching you right now is how paranoid you're acting about the possibility of getting lynched, since there wasn't really much pressure on you leading up to this point. (No more, that is, than there was when you first made the claim to have special role-reveal of his alignment - a claim that would've been a lot more suspicious if you'd been afraid of getting lynched at the time.) Since Dachande outright denies having any knowledge of your alignment, we can't really expect to learn anything about either of you based on the death of another; other than that if you're Town, then he's both probably Town and probably dead.

Then again, that's... probably better than nothing. Dachande's response was the last, vital piece that sent the massive Jenga wall of my prior post - already teetering from all the assumptions it was built upon in the very first place - tumbling to the tabletop. It's pretty much all worthless now.

I actually can't afford to put that kind of time aside for another in-depth assessment of our prospects again today, so right now, I'll just have to say that my initial impression is that you're the best lead we've got so far. Maybe Dunsparce or Shizno can jump in and point out something I've missed.

...huh.

That last part sounded weirder in my head than it looked in text, somehow.
So I suggest a logical step would be to ask any role blocker to block me, or any investigator to investigate me.
More likely to mislead than to provide any real leads, especially now that it's been brought up in public.

Anyway. I've got to put aside some time to look through the thread again tomorrow, before I put another vote down, because shit's gotten pretty real in this game already. If it starts looking like the hammer's going to swing your way before that, then I'd say you might want to consider claiming the rest of your role. It'd be yet another one of a number of them already thrown out this phase, but, eh. Sometimes, it just can't be helped.
 
D

Danny

Guest
Unregsistered User
I came here to lynch you when I saw Dach's post, you convinced me not to lynch you, and then you convinced me to lynch you again.

Lynch Danny

I'm weary of Easy's wall of death. I've seen him do it as Mafia, I've seen him do it as town. Good points as usual, but not to the point of putting him above suspicion.

Dunsparce is sliding by while more important things happen, as is FireDemon. Input from these players is necessary before the day closes with a lynch.
The thing is, I can only be honest because other than an investigator checking me tonight, I can't talk my way out of this situation, and I feel like an investigation on me would be a waste, because the mafia could just kill me. This is a similar situation to the one that happened on the first day of the last game, where Dachande claimed doctor, except I assumed that me and Dachande had a two way thing, and we could get a 4-person town party going on.

I say Dachande is 100% a townie, he can't say the same for me.

On that basis, I would lynch me, and I can't argue my way out of it, which is why my assumption is that I will get lynched.
It's not paranoia, I genuinely think that's what'll happen.

But I agree, if I'm dead, Dachande is probably dead too, so maybe not lynch me?

Maybe the play is to not lynch me and let the mafia do it, or to not lynch me and invest in the hope the mafia predict a doctor attempt heading my way.

But yeah, an unfortunate assumption about the probability two-way nature of my role is probably my death.

For anyone on the fence, if I was mafia, I would have to be really fucking dumb mafia to claim to be mason buddies with someone who could easily deny it and get me killed day one. It's not a risk I would take if I was actually mafia. But read into that what you will.
 
D

Danny

Guest
Unregsistered User
...that. Weirdly enough, the most solid argument for lynching you right now is how paranoid you're acting about the possibility of getting lynched,
Y'know, you're right. I have a serious case of thinking about the situation wrong.

If you assume I am town, which I am, if I die, Dachande dies next and we lose two townies, and learn nothing except for the fact that there was at least one mason-like group, that is now dead.

So easy, what you've just made me realise is that I am officially a dumb town player. Fuck.
 

Jeroth

Mach Ambassador
Moderator
Walrus - 2( 13th, Daschande)
Danny - 2 (Dunsparce, Anatronman)
Shizno - 1 (Walrus)
Firedemon - 4 (Andy, Cyonica, Danny, Shizno,)

6 Required to Lynch

Remaining votes: 1 ( Firedemon)
 

Cyonica

Member
Member
I feel like Danny's telling the truth. Although lynching him would guarantee it, if it means Dachande also dies then I don't think it's worth getting two probable town players killed right at the start of the game. It might help solidify what me and Andy said, which I guess is useful if you aren't currently sure, but I don't see it getting us any further than that and over all we'd probably just end up down two town players. I do feel like we've learned an awful lot today, but I'd be much happier if we could also hear from 13th and FD before one of them gets lynched.
 

Dunsparce

Well-Known Member
Member
Unlynch Danny

Lynching Danny isn't going to clear Andy and Cyonica; I'd actually put more stock in them being scum again (not gonna make the gambler's fallacy). If you want to confirm all this, I'd say we should lynch one of them. But I don't think that, and I think the scummiest thing you can do right now is try to get one of the four *confirmed* townies lynched. On that basis, I think we should Lynch Anatronman.
 

Firedemon

Well-Known Member
Member
...

Gonna just defensively lynch Walrus here, since I don't know what the hell is going on here. Been kinda busy with spring break (as in, my spring break is actually not a break) and my internet was out yesterday. So, I'll be catching up tonight.
 
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Danny

Guest
Unregsistered User
safety unlynch firedemon

I want to hear what FD thinks when he's all caught up.
 

Anatronman

Well-Known Member
Member
Danny's aware of what he did. My lynch sits on the person with the highest probability of being scum based on current information.

Dunsparce is quietly defending him by shifting his lynch to me. This is the moment where Danny flipping scum wins the game.
 
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Danny

Guest
Unregsistered User
Danny's aware of what he did. My lynch sits on the person with the highest probability of being scum based on current information.

Dunsparce is quietly defending him by shifting his lynch to me. This is the moment where Danny flipping scum wins the game.
That logic works right up until the moment I'm (surprise surprise) not scum and actually just a shitty town player, and we lose two townies day/night 1 for no decent reason.

Last game Dunsparce accused more or less everyone, and that's consistent with what I've seen this game. Actually, Dunsparce was the first person to lynch me this game, which then led on to Shizno accusing me for the 2 days while I was inactive, and which then led to Andy wondering about me too, which if we were actually scum buddies would be a pretty awful tactic.
FoS Anatronman.
 

Anatronman

Well-Known Member
Member
A pretty awful tactic would be announcing another player is a townie and then writing a dissertation on how you should be lynched.
 

Easy

Right Honorable Justice
Member
Lynch Anatronman.
The funny thing is, I actually kinda wanted to do that myself. It's Anatron, though. I no longer trust even my own instincts on that matter.
 
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