Ended Pally and Ro3's Maquerade Mafia - Night 4

[Tirin]

I would also like to add Rondait who was jumping around like crazy, and firedemon, who could have hammered once it appeared his scum buddy wasn't getting out alive.

While I don't think Rondait's jumping around is indicative of anything other than him being dumb, Firedemon's hammer is a pretty good catch. I shoulda made it myself.

Throwing your scum buddy under the bus - especially if you're early in the lynch - is a great way to get on the good side of the town.

Throwing them under the bus early is fucking stupid when you could try to mount a coherent defense instead. That suggests to me that someone who jumps to lynch their buddy early is either incompetent or convinced of their own incompetence - and thus likely incompetent.

...Huh. Rondait is the third lynch on Youma...

Or, of course, the Illuminati could recruit Tim, Rondait, or Salsy tomorrow since we know they aren't mafia.

We don't know whether or not Rondait is mafia. Him sending me a friendly whisper isn't indicative of anything, and he couldn't have talked to any scumbuddies because Youma was dead.

 

[AndyM03]

I don't like the white tiger and Jeroth illuminati theory, they couldn't have planned that move without outside of forum communication because the messages would have come up. So I guess a bad town move by Whitetiger?
I'm a little less keen on Salsy but mainly because I've been busy and have only read the threads day phase up to now just then.

 

[Whitetiger]

Because I only had one truth serum and I used it up because night 1 is usually when the most discussion goes on among scum and would give us the most information. Also if one of the illuminati is lynched or nightkilled then there will (likely) only be one of each anti-town alignment and they will cease to discuss among themselves, which would make my truth serum far less useful. Also if I died night 1 then this serum would still have its effect regardless of me living. I weighed the risks and decided it was worth going for the long-shot night 1 than risk dying and depriving town of this ability. Unfortunately I either targeted a towny or a mafia rather than an illuminati, and didn't really find much out other than that Rondait isn't illuminati.

As for why I took credit for the serum now instead of when Rondait is on the chopping block, it's a lot less suspicious to town if I do it immediately than if I wait until he's about to be lynched. That's the main reason.

I may only be vanilla town now, or I may have other single-use abilities unrelated to the serum. I won't say which because there is no reason to.

 

[Salsy]

Pretty sure WT is town.

Jeroth said someone gave him that night ability. It wasn't his.

Policy lynches literally go against your win condition unless you are scum.

 

[Whitetiger]

My last post was in response to Firedemon btw. 2 posts ninja'd mine.

 

[Tag_Ross]

Him sending me a friendly whisper isn't indicative of anything, and he couldn't have talked to any scumbuddies because Youma was dead.

That whisper could even have been rondait being an idiot and telling you that he's not trying to kill you, the whispers are anonymous after all.

 

[Steal Thy Kill]

Alright, then what now? The best candidates for scum, given what little information I've got, are people who didn't vote for Youma - meaning you, Salsy, Shizno, Tag ('cause he voted late), Redfrank (who's dead and flipped town anyway), and Stealthy. Discounting you and Salsy, that leaves Shizno, Tag, and Stealthy.

Salsy still isn't a bad lynch, because if he comes up scum or illuminati he'll take you down with him. However, I think that'd be a pretty dumbass risk for you to take if he's scum, considering he'd know that you're illuminati, and I doubt you're both illuminati (though can't yet discount it). I'm having a difficult time discerning who among Shizno, Tag, and Stealthy are most likely to be anti-town. However, the lack of activity and discussion from Shizno and Stealthy leads me to believe it's one of them.

I have a headache right now because CAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR. But I really think Youma so far is a Hanlon's Razor case (dumb not scum). Though I admit I default to that rather easily. I also admit to not reading the last page or two too in depth because headache.

Granted, car has now been resolved but now I'm on the "pack my shit up and go" phase. So y'know, it's gonna be a thing for now. I will fully admit that I probably wasn't gonna lynch Youma though. I've generally soured on Day 1 being a rush to lynch whoever says the dumbest thing, though it absolutely worked this time. I may have changed my mind if I paid more attention (I remember Tim pointing out some legit scum behavior re: diverting attention), but idk. Regardless, what's done is done.

Looking at the night/quick read through today, I'm gonna go ahead and say I trust Rondait and Tim to be town. Maybe Tim is an Illuminati but eh. Regardless, I don't think either is maf. Tiger's ability seems town. Riyant vouching for Salsy is either Illuminati helping scum/other Illuminati or legit town. Or he's being a clever little bastard. I default to town but with the maf down to one member it'd be more worth the risk. So leaving room open, but I still lean towards town. Anybody who was going full on down Youma's throat yesterday (obv Tirin. Firedemon too? idk about anybody else) is probably town enough to not be worth lynching today if they did it before it became inevitable. I don't think we need to worry about somebody throwing an ally into a bus yet. Taking out those leaves six, and that's leaving out anybody else who was full on kill Youma yesterday that I haven't bothered to notice. Tag, Lotus, Shizno, me, Andy, and Polly. Obv I know I'm town, but there's some good starting points. Maybe FD too if I'm misremembering yesterday. I'll try and do digging in a few hours before I off to bed, but no promises.

None of this accounts for alignment switching last night though. Cause that's a thing. idk how that works though, whether it's maf/Illuminati getting an x-shot recruitment ability or Illuminati doing a culty thing or if it's a triggered ability. Like if the town lynches a mason then his buddy goes maf, for example. Man is this gonna be a thing.

 

[AndyM03]

I want to respect Riyants vouch for Salsy because I'm gonna believe he's linked to Whitetiger somehow who I believe to be town/illuminati, but that also just makes me want to lynch Salsy to get a better idea of Riyant.
Or should we lynch Riyant to get a better idea of Salsy? Technically Riyant, if mafia, could vouch for a great many people for us to 'test' and because he knows their town he can vouch for people quite safely without actually being an investigative role. I'm just trying to say as much as I can because in 10 minutes i'll probably be out for the day depending on how intense my lectures are or if I just straight up give up on math for the day.

 

[AndyM03]

Fuck my grammer sucks in that first sentence, sorry, but I won't edit.

 

[Tirin]

If we were to lynch one of Riyant or Salsy, I'd hit Salsy. I think he'd be more likely to be mafia based on his defending Youma and Youma's shitty idea. Further, Riyant said that he was granted an ability last night - which suggests to me that he might not normally have that ability. If he keeps throwing out judgements on who's town and who's not over the next few days, then lynching him might be a good idea - but Salsy would prettymuch always be the better lynch even then, because as illuminati I don't think he'd have any reason to protect townies. Thus a lynch on Salsy would either end the game in a town victory (providing no townies get/have been turned to mafia), flip illuminati and prove that Riyant's illuminati (unless illuminati can make more illuminati - even then, it'd be very suspect), or flip town and show Riyant's acting in good faith as a townie.

Basically, Salsy would make a great information lynch, and if he's scum lynching him would win us the game; however, this option should be available to us for a large part of the game, so it's probably better to lynch another suspect. Of those, I personally favor Shizno as the one to hit, because he's said very little unless called upon, and what he's said has mostly been bullshit.

 

[Shizno]

ur a hit i'll put u into the fucking ground if u keep talking shit
But really, autism aside, I believe I have a potential solution to all of this. Pretty simply, it has to do with my ability. Since I figured I'd might as well make use of this sooner rather than later when I'll most likely be dead by next day phase, looking at my past history with things. Short-story-short, essentially my ability is a one-time use anti-lynch. Meaning before someone gets hammered, I tell everyone to fuck off and it doesn't go through. But more than that, later that night I learn of that person's alignment. Which I can then whisper to someone before I either inevitably get murdered for being confirmed town or whatever.

What would this prove? Whether or not someone's what we expect them to be, leading to information without the risk of lynching a townie. And if they're mafia or whatever the town could just re-lynch them the following day. So best case scenario, we get a confirmed townie and worst case we kind've linger a day before lynching an anti-town or cult or whateverthefuck is going on. Literally anyone other than me would do.

 

[AndyM03]

Does your ability end the day? If so I don't know if we can consider your ability Town, it's just as useful as a mafia ability. Especially since if it does end the day it's a no lynch ability.

 

[Whitetiger]

Except you told us all of this and it hinges on you surviving the night and still being a townie tomorrow, neither of which are very likely now that everyone is aware of your investigative power.

 

[Tirin]

I think that makes it extremely worthwhile to "lynch" Salsy, since knowing his alignment would provide clear-cut info on both him and Riyant, and it would get use out of Shizno's power - which we've now got very little chance of doing.

 

[Shizno]

Does your ability end the day? If so I don't know if we can consider your ability Town, it's just as useful as a mafia ability. Especially since if it does end the day it's a no lynch ability.

Probably doesn't actually say. Thing is, after I use my ability, my role gets officially identified.

Except you told us all of this and it hinges on you surviving the night and still being a townie tomorrow, neither of which are very likely now that everyone is aware of your investigative power.

As I said, I can whisper it to someone in case I'm no longer town/dead. Probably.

 

[AndyM03]

I think that makes it extremely worthwhile to "lynch" Salsy, since knowing his alignment would provide clear-cut info on both him and Riyant, and it would get use out of Shizno's power - which we've now got very little chance of doing.

Simply put, I agree. I vote to allow Shizno to use his power today. Do I have to lynch Salsy for real? Or is him having the most votes at the moment enough for now?

 

[Shizno]

Lynch Salsy
He has to be lynched for anything to activate. Otherwise there's nothing to un-lynch.

 

[Tirin]

So be it. Lynch Salsy.

 

[Whitetiger]

Why would we trust Shizno's investigation but not Riyant? Especially when Shizno's investigation will likely be passed to us through a third party whose alignment is also unknown to us? Also that's 3 investigative roles that have been claimed so far (though Shizno and I are both claiming ours to be single use). I'll keep my lynch on Salsy and Shizno can use his power as he sees fit, but I will say that things probably aren't as simple as people claim.

 

[Tirin]

Well, if you're town and your ability isn't single-use, I imagine you'll be sensible enough to use it on Shizno and save us all a shitload of trouble. Furthermore, we'll see if Shizno's ability is as he claimed - because he said that his role will be published when he uses it, and published information is by definition more reliable than a roleclaim.