Ended Pally and Ro3's Maquerade Mafia - Night 4

[Firedemon]

So, after the roleclaiming horseshit I've seen in my days, policy lynch Youma until something better shows up.

stahp it.

And before someone says "FD that's a really dumb policy" I would like to point you to the last two games where early roleclaims seriously benefited the mafia, then remind you of the role madness game I ran in which THREE COPS ROLECLAIMED AGAINST EACH OTHER. Admittedly, that was hilarious.

 

[Tirin]

Allowing you to live is an anti-fun concept.

Jesus Christ, that's some savagery. Just Serial Kill him tonight or whatever.

Anyway, lynch Youma, because his idea has historically fucked over town and he defended it really, really goddamn poorly.

2. NO SCREENCAPPING. You can lie as much as you want but you cannot circumvent the Publish mechanic by providing out of game proof of something.

I didn't say it was a good idea. Just that it reveals more about the game. pls no bully

Even worse, he defended it after Pally's rule clarification post. "We can bullshit our roles all we want guys, let's do it". Pretty good plan.

 

[Steal Thy Kill]

I think Redfrank should be let be since he's 1) new, and 2) unfamiliar with our meta. Lotus kinda gets the second one but not that much of a break. Would've gone for Tiger but apparently was RPing. Split on whether to cut Youma an inexperienced break or not. Forget how many games he played way back when.

(I mean, I don't think any of these reprieves are absolute, but I think they cover newbie mistakes on Day 1. And that's mostly what we have so far. That said, Tim has a point on Lotus that's legit, even if apparently Tim has a hardon for ruining Lotus' day)

 

[Rondait]

Well it wouldn't be fun to lynch someone who hasn't played with us before, and it would be nice to get to know his style, so for that and the reasons above I agree with not lynching Redfrank at the moment. With that said, I'll FoS Youma for the roleclaim suggestion.

 

[AndyM03]

Redfrank, believe it or not the statistics favour a lynch on day one. I'm in a rush so I can't quote Jeroth from Firedemon's game but it essentially is always better for the town to lynch on day one. Not only does it help increase of killing mafia at a later date it gives us a lot more information to go on. Youma's suggestion was pretty dumb so I guess FoS, in the sense that he could have convinced someone to say who they were immediately which could have been pretty disastrous. I'd lynch but I've gotta go and can't see the hammer count so I won't for now but i'm leaning towards it.

 

[Shizno]

Oh hey this started. Well, I won't linger too much on the idea of role clamming to get things started because everyone's already pointed out that it's retarded.It's a bit to early to go after Youma for one comment, I believe. But I agree with Stealthy about going easy on at least Redfrank for the time being.

 

[Jeroth]

Also FoS Jeroth. Gut read based on his post.

What? How? I made a small post in the middle of the day before I left to throw in my two pennies about RedFrank and agree with Polly about the point of the first day.

Jesus Christ, that's some savagery. Just Serial Kill him tonight or whatever.

Tim's special ability is being able to nightkill and his win condition is being the only one left alive. Confirmed 120%

I think Redfrank should be let be since he's 1) new, and 2) unfamiliar with our meta. Lotus kinda gets the second one but not that much of a break.

I agree with Stealthy on that Redfrank. While I think he's new and inexperienced, the idea of a no lynch is just unsettling, which is why I dropped the FoS on him.

It seems the current attention is on @Youmer - I'd like to hear his defense more before I consider a lynch, but it's definitely worth a FoS Youma.

 

[Firedemon]

Let me explain the lynching vs not lynching thing

Let's assume we suck and always miss, the mafia never fails, and no one else has a kill

Day 1
13 Not-mafia
2 Mafia
2/15 chance to hit
Day 2
11 Not-mafia
2 Mafia
2/13 chance to hit
Day 3
9 Not-mafia
2 Mafia
2/11 chance to hit
Day 4
7 Not-mafia (we actually lost at this point if there are still 2 Illuminati, but I'll pretend they don't exist)
2 Mafia
2/9 chance to hit
Day 5
5 Not-mafia
2 Mafia
2/7 chance to hit
Day 6
3 Not-mafia
2 Mafia
2/5 chance to hit

So if we lynch totally randomly like this, our chances of losing without lynching a single mafia are 13*11*9*7*5*3/(15*13*11*9*7*5) = 1/5 = 20%
But, say we no lynch on day 1. Then it would go like this with the same assumptions

Day 1
13 Not-mafia
2 Mafia
0 chance to hit
Day 2
12 Not-mafia
2 Mafia
1/7 chance to hit
Day 3
10 Not-mafia
2 Mafia
1/6 chance to hit
Day 4
8 Not-mafia (we actually lost at this point if there are still 2 Illuminati, but I'll pretend they don't exist)
2 Mafia
1/5 chance to hit
Day 5
6 Not-mafia
2 Mafia
1/4 chance to hit
Day 6
4 Not-mafia
2 Mafia
1/3 chance to hit

And our chances to miss every time are therefore 6*5*4*3*2/(7*6*5*4*3) = 2/7 = 28.6% ish
Now you can make the argument that more voices means better lynches down the line, but that assumes that people's opinions have a decent chance of being valid. This also means that the mafia has total control over what voices stop being heard, until we start lynching anyways, so they can eliminate the voices that are actually beneficial and providing information. And if everyone is waiting to lynch until we have something perfect, no one is actually going to be speaking anyways. Generally the solid information provided when someone dies is more useful than the flimsy (and possibly outright false, through malicious intent or not) information provided by discussion.

"You rubbed me the wrong way!"
"Yeah, it's Ciffy; that's literally what he does to people"
"Fair enough."
"FD DIDN'T JOKE LYNCH TC!"
"Yeah because I haven't done that in several games?"
"TC isn't in this game."
"GOD DAMMIT FD KILLED TC ALREADY!"

That sounds like a joke, but mafia games are super prone to utter nonsense. It's really just a witch hunt until we have something solid. Like reveals after death. The game is about building something ordered from a disordered system.

...

We're literally violating the Second Law of Thermodynamics like a spin-echo experiment and you should all be ashamed.

 

[Youmer]

It seems the current attention is on @Youmer - I'd like to hear his defense more before I consider a lynch, but it's definitely worth a FoS Youma.

No real defense to be given. Redfrank said he didn't want to lynch until there was more information and I mentioned the two fastest ways of getting that. You'd think I'd have learned by now not to give advice on something I know very little about.

 

[TimTh33nchant3r]

What the...? God DAMN it, Youma. You're looking so scummy I kind of want to take my traditional anti-Lotus lynch off and use it on you. Are you sure you're not a jester or something? Stop trying to make me abandon tradition. Stop the madness. But not the role madness. Just the roleclaiming madness.

Looking back at the initial post, that wasn't actually all that bad, but man. Dat followup. WTF, mate?

 

[Rondait]

Yeah...while on one hand I believe it could of honestly been an innocent suggestion, the other hand says it could of been malicious so that maybe someone newer could of actually jumped on that, hurting everyone. While realistically the first possibility is more likely, there is the fact that it it is day one and we don't really have anything better to go on at the moment.

Lynch Youma.

 

[Youmer]

Nah. I'm not scum, just a big dumb dummy.

 

[Salsy]

Lynch Rondait or Firedemon

Up to the gm's, I don't really care which one right now.

 

[Firedemon]

Uh... Why?

 

[Rondait]

Are we going to get any explanation with that lynch, or...?

 

[Shizno]

Nah, you don't deserve it. I'm more leaning towards the fact that it was just a dumb suggestion rather than an outright bait.
Lynch Rondait-kun-chan-can
Holy fuck am I funny or what?

 

[AndyM03]

Come on Youma, you're meant to spam pages of yelling and swearing until your arguments fall to pieces and are raped by riders of the apocalypse. And then Tirin will die for whatever reason.
I think we're at 4 lynches on Youma but I could be wrong haha. So i'll stand by what I said before, Lynch Youma. It's getting close to hammer time but not too close for me to need to abstain from lynching at the moment.
Salsy's and Shizno's lynches seem odd, but I like people going against the grain. Power to you, crazy bastards.
Seriously though why i'm not even suspicious i'm just confused.

 

[Ro Ro Ro]

Lynch Rondait or Firedemon

Up to the gm's, I don't really care which one right now.

Flipped a coin. You're voting Rondait.

 

[The Polly]

I didn't say it was a good idea. Just that it reveals more about the game. pls no bully

No real defense to be given. Redfrank said he didn't want to lynch until there was more information and I mentioned the two fastest ways of getting that. You'd think I'd have learned by now not to give advice on something I know very little about.

So you argued that you don't/didn't think it's a good idea, but then you later argue that you were giving 'advice,' which implies you thought it was a good idea. Seems like a contradiction, no? And even if that were an honest mistake, it's going to be pretty fucking hard to get accurate reads on you later in the game if you play like that. Not going to lynch yet, since I'd like another page or so of discussion before jumping into the night phase, but FoS Youma, and I'll probably lynch later tonight, or maybe tomorrow morning if I'm too drunk this evening.

 

[AndyM03]

too drunk this evening.

Friend, being too drunk is never a problem. Believe in yourself xx