Ended Rondait's Horus Heresy Mafia: The Imperium Stands!

[TimTh33nchant3r]

What the fuck? I was considering unlynching you, but this is some idiotic shit. I'm flattered you think I'm on the level of Ozymandius where I can plan that far ahead, but keep in mind the following:

Don't be. It's not that complicated to mess with a meta, especially with such a small playerbase. It doesn't help your case that I heard you talking about this new policy lynching bullshit on the podcast, as if to cover your bases.

(1) Any good GM randomizes the roles of their game.

(a) Look at TC and his Firefly mafia. When he gave roles purposefully, it went to shit.
(b) Just because you were the Serial Killer, I wasn't going to redo everything. That's the will of the generator. I have a screen cap of it if you're so persistent about me GIVING you the role.​

(2) That would require me BEING A MEMBER OF THE MAFIA. IN A GAME THAT WAS JUST STARTED.

1: Yeah, any GOOD GM. I don't really care about the screencap, since you could have simply rolled until you got what you wanted, and that's assuming you aren't telling the truth and just capitalizing on some RNG bullshit.
2: Yeah, that's exactly what I'm saying. If you drew mafia this game, you'd take advantage of the policy lynch plan you'd set in motion over the past couple games, and if you didn't draw mafia this game, you'd probably hold off and hope that I did draw scum since it'd reinforce your argument down the road when you did call for the policy lynch. Ergo, I suspect you of being mafia. The less likely but still possible option is that you're town, and you have somehow come to the conclusion that I am statistically more likely to be mafia, which is false because I have the same odds as everyone else if you believe in the RNG at all.

I'm not revealing until more than half the players ask me to. Deal with it.

You're 1/7 required.

@Dunsparce Day one lynches are frequently arbitrary, but they don't have to be retarded. If we're going to institute a policy lynch based on what role someone got in a previous game, I might just as well never play again.

Also, I'm looking at that thing Jeroth posted and failing to see how the town lost a chance to hit scum? Maybe I'm just not all the way awake yet, but both scenarios have the town mislynching 3 times? I mean, I'm generally in favor of the day one lynch, but this looks like an argument against it for even numbers of players maybe?

Anyway, I've got work all day, so when I get back tonight I'll tally up and see if we hit majority for me revealing.

 

[Whitetiger]

unlynch

 

[Dunsparce]

@Dunsparce Day one lynches are frequently arbitrary, but they don't have to be retarded. If we're going to institute a policy lynch based on what role someone got in a previous game, I might just as well never play again.

'Xactly. I'm trying to have the day 1 lynch at least have a little merit.

Also, I'm looking at that thing Jeroth posted and failing to see how the town lost a chance to hit scum? Maybe I'm just not all the way awake yet, but both scenarios have the town mislynching 3 times? I mean, I'm generally in favor of the day one lynch, but this looks like an argument against it for even numbers of players maybe?

. . . Yeah, I feel the same way, but I didn't want to question it because I don't understand this game too well.

 

[Jeroth]

Jeroth going aggressive so hard is tickling my scumdar. This started out as a funny little joke, and now he's really hitting hard on him. Then again, the fact that Tim didn't realize that Day 1 lynches are mostly arbitrary is kinda stupid, and also makes me suspicious.

I hit back as hard as I get hit.

Don't be. It's not that complicated to mess with a meta, especially with such a small playerbase. It doesn't help your case that I heard you talking about this new policy lynching bullshit on the podcast, as if to cover your bases.

You mean the podcast that was done April 22nd? Two weeks ago? Before Rondait even made this game where anyone has a chance to be scum? You're right, man - you've caught me. I orchestrated with Rondait to be scum this game.

1: Yeah, any GOOD GM. I don't really care about the screencap, since you could have simply rolled until you got what you wanted, and that's assuming you aren't telling the truth and just capitalizing on some RNG bullshit.

In the same vein, I could have rerolled multiple times until you weren't the serial killer, but you know what? That's how the cards fell and I'm not going to reroll them just because you drew the lot of serial killer.

2: Yeah, that's exactly what I'm saying. If you drew mafia this game, you'd take advantage of the policy lynch plan you'd set in motion over the past couple games, and if you didn't draw mafia this game, you'd probably hold off and hope that I did draw scum since it'd reinforce your argument down the road when you did call for the policy lynch. Ergo, I suspect you of being mafia. The less likely but still possible option is that you're town, and you have somehow come to the conclusion that I am statistically more likely to be mafia, which is false because I have the same odds as everyone else if you believe in the RNG at all.

I don't understand why you're getting so upset about a policy lynch when you policy lynch lotus every game. It's Day 1, so I tossed a lynch on you. The only reason it's still there is because you've been unusually aggressive about your ridiculous theory that I'm scum.

D1: No Lynch. 12 players. [ 9 Town, 3 Mafia] -
N1: Town is killed. [8 Town, 3 Mafia]
D2: Town is lynched. [7 Town, 3 Mafia] - 27.2% to hit scum on this day (3/11)
N2: Town is killed. [ 6 Town, 3 Mafia]
D3: Town is lynched. [ 5 Town, 3 Mafia] - 33.3% Chance to Hit Scum on this day(3/9)
N3: Town is killed. [ 4 Town, 3 Mafia.
D4: Town is lynched. [3 Town, 3 Mafia] - 42% Chance to hit Scum (3/7)
MAFIA WIN as they will get their final kill on N4.

Let's say we lynch:

D1: Town is lynched. [8 Town, 3 Mafia] - 25% chance to lynch Scum this Day (3/12)
N1: Town is killed. [7 Town, 3 Mafia]
D2: Town is lynched. [6 Town, 3 Mafia] - 30% chance to lynch scum on this day(3/10)
N2: Town is killed. [5 Town, 3 Mafia.]
D3: Town is lynched. [4 Town, 3 Mafia.] - 37.5% chance to lynch scum on this day (3/8)
N3: Town is killed. [3 Town, 3 Mafia.] - Mafia Win as town cannot reach majority on the D4.

@Dunsparce & @TimTh33nchant3r : You were both right about the number of lynches. I slipped up typing it up in the morning and forgot that the score reflects the end of the phase.

I still push for Day 1 lynches because they're what the town needs. In a no-lynch scenario, there is no discussion and there's no bandwagons to analyze. You don't see who hesitated on jumping on a bandwagon on scum and you don't get to see who eagerly jumped on the wagon for a town.

If we no-lynch, we're giving a pro-town player to the scum and we won't have any information going forward on Day 2.

 

[Whitetiger]

Lynching is better if we have a vigi. If we no-lynch, then vigi shoots on the night before the final lynch (night before LYLO), we lose before we get to make the lynch if he misses. We go from 4 town and 3 mafia to 3 town and 3 mafia and the game ends before we get to lynch.

If we lynch, the vigi shooting the night before LYLO doesn't end the game if he misses. We go from 5 town and 3 mafia to 4 town and 3 mafia and we get one final lynch anyway.

Considering there is no real benefit gained from the no-lynch, and there may be a vigi, it's mathematically better for us to lynch today.

 

[Lotus]

That's a whole chain of ifs/ands/ors/buts. I personally can't imagine that anyone would even attempt such a thing, just for the potential gain of being able to lynch a townie day one.

Given that Jeroth's plot is 100% accurate, and you've not developed some extreme conspiracy theory against you, that plan still doesn't give Jeroth any really standing to get a lynch on you. If you hadn't channeled @Tirin at a joke lynch (I consider policy lynches such) the town would have ignored it. "Haha, Jeroth's pushing that policy that he talked about in that podcast." And the chance you'd have gotten lynched is the same as any other day 1 joke/policy lynch, and that's about 1/12 chance, because you're 1 of 12 players.

1 of 12 players that is drawing quite a bit of aggro from throwing a tantrum over being joke lynched. So with that I'm pretty stuck. I either keep my lynch because I think you're hella suspicious, or I withdraw my lynch out of pity, which I would never do. You've pretty much concreted my lynch on you unless something else comes up, and likely nothing will, because you've drawn all the attention to you with your Tirin fit.

 

[Requiem]

I don't have much time to post right now, but all of this referencing out of game stuff to try and legitimize a random conspiracy theory that requires one of the people in this game (Jeroth) to intentionally be a shitty person all for the sake of just getting a kill in mafia is... asinine. Jeroth is a good dude and he plays mafia for fun, whether he's town or mafia. He wouldn't intentionally mess with the way the game is run and plan stuff weeks in advance for the sake of just getting one kill.

This is dumb and idiotic and if this is how day 1 is going to go, I'm gonna no lynch for the rest of this game. Jesus Christ, we're all adults here. We're not gonna do some random conspiracy bullshit like that because shit like that literally kills not just a single game of something, but the thing itself.

If you wanna get Jeroth lynched, bring some actual game evidence and not random stuff outside of the game. If you wanna get Jeroth lynched, point to your gut, look at stuff he's posted. Don't just try to say that he's an asshole who would pull some batman gambit bullshit because even if he were a dickbag willing to do all that, he's just as fucking busy as you, Tim. Like damn, let's get real here.

Play the game and leave it in the game. Everyone put your bullshit outside the door and just have some fucking fun for once, holy Christ.

 

[Whitetiger]

Decided to unlynch because I was scum with Tim last game and he seemed pretty chill when he was mafia. Maybe it's because he's more used to playing anti-town than he is playing town and may be more comfortable knowing who his enemies are.

In any event, I don't think he spazzes out this hard as mafia after only a couple lynch votes, or tries to leverage his role information the way he is right now. This just feels like complete night and day with TTGL mafia when we were both scum.

 

[Dunsparce]

Not to mention how hypocritical it is to mention shit outside of the game as a reason to lynch someone.

Alright, Tim, I gave you your chance, and ya blew it. Sorry, not sorry.
Lynch Tim

 

[Tirin]

You know, Tim, I want you to roleclaim too. Consider this my vote for it, 'cause you're being suspicious as shit.

FoS Tim.

 

[Danny]

FoS Danny.

That isn't a reason to suspect me; you can check the last game I played where I was town (it was poop though) where I said the exact same thing. I haven't played a whole lot of forum mafia, but I've played a bit of Town of Salem, and this has always been my thought process, since in a role madness situation where there are more town then then mafia, you have a much higher chance of hitting town (who might find something useful) then mafia. I think townies with information are more valuable then dead townies.

But, compared to you Jeroth, and most of the others here, I'm still a realtive newbie (this is maybe my 2nd or 3rd mafia game on the forum? And my first for many, many years?). So it's likely I still have a lot to learn in terms of accepted Meta.

I can't believe that none of you would consider that this was a deliberate move on Jeroth's part in his game for the exact reason we're seeing here; so he can get an easy day one town kill the next time he happened to play scum.

Not nobody. Easy town death day 1 for the Mafia is pretty much exactly why I dislike day 1 Lynching. I want the Mafia to have more targets, so they have less chance of picking someone who knows something, and I want the townies to find mafia and tell us about it day 2/3, so we can hit guaranteed targets. But I guess everyone thinks about this differently, and arguing about stratergy isn't going to get us anywhere.

Play the game and leave it in the game. Everyone put your bullshit outside the door and just have some fucking fun for once, holy Christ.

I read everything, and pretty much this. I couldn't agree more.
Now, as for JUST in-game evidence, Jeroth has been throwing accusations all over the place.
This could be read in several ways.

Option 1) Jeroth is scum, trying to get townie lynches.
Option 2) Jeroth is scum, trying to control the direction of conversation.
Option 3) Jeroth is town, trying to stimulate conversation to gather information.

From what I've seen of Jeroth, I respect him, I think he's a smart guy and so I don't think he'd be stupid mafia.
By being this loud, this early he risks getting lynched from a reactionary Town, and that leads me to suspect that he is town trying to stimulate conversation, to see how people respond.

So, for now I stick to my no lynch first day policy.

 

[Whitetiger]

For the record I agree that Riyant is probably town, reacting to the last game in which town barely discussed shit. He decided to RNG a lynch and get the ball rolling.

Btw @Jeroth I hope for your sake you did [1-11] instead of [1-12]. #14not15

 

[Requiem]

For what it's worth, while I'm spending Mother's Day with mi madre, it looks to me like both Tim and Jeroth are Townie.

 

[Firedemon]

Obviously my first move is to Lynch TC then transitioning into Ceasefire TC.

...

God dammit TC, why aren't you in this game. Okay fine, serious post coming in a bit.

 

[Lotus]

Obviously my first move is to Lynch TC then transitioning into Ceasefire TC

I suppose this means your Ceasefire won't work this time, though last time it got you lynched for being a scummy bastard.

Stop trying to defend Tim by subverting our attention
Well played.

Edit: Gods, doing bbcode on my phone is unforgiving.

 

[Zircom]

For what it's worth, while I'm spending Mother's Day with mi madre, it looks to me like both Tim and Jeroth are Townie.

Lynch Req for heresy. Everyone knows the Primarchs were grown in gestation capsules and created entirely from the genetic material of our father the Emperor of Mankind, with no involvement from any "madre".

 

[Lotus]

 

[Rondait]

Current votes:
3 Tim: Jeroth, Lotus, Dunsparce
1 Jeroth: Tim
1 Req: Zircom

With 12 players alive it takes 7 lynches to kill.

 

[TimTh33nchant3r]

I don't understand why you're getting so upset about a policy lynch when you policy lynch lotus every game. It's Day 1, so I tossed a lynch on you. The only reason it's still there is because you've been unusually aggressive about your ridiculous theory that I'm scum.

Well, the thing about Lotus is that I know he's town this time and I have to at least try to play to my wincon.

@Dunsparce & @TimTh33nchant3r : You were both right about the number of lynches. I slipped up typing it up in the morning and forgot that the score reflects the end of the phase.

I still push for Day 1 lynches because they're what the town needs. In a no-lynch scenario, there is no discussion and there's no bandwagons to analyze. You don't see who hesitated on jumping on a bandwagon on scum and you don't get to see who eagerly jumped on the wagon for a town.

If we no-lynch, we're giving a pro-town player to the scum and we won't have any information going forward on Day 2.

Yeah, that's a good argument. I know I tend to be in favor of day one lynches.

Lynching is better if we have a vigi. If we no-lynch, then vigi shoots on the night before the final lynch (night before LYLO), we lose before we get to make the lynch if he misses. We go from 4 town and 3 mafia to 3 town and 3 mafia and the game ends before we get to lynch.

If we lynch, the vigi shooting the night before LYLO doesn't end the game if he misses. We go from 5 town and 3 mafia to 4 town and 3 mafia and we get one final lynch anyway.

Considering there is no real benefit gained from the no-lynch, and there may be a vigi, it's mathematically better for us to lynch today.

I concur.

Also, I'm tracking 2/7 requests for role flip. (Tirin + Jeroth) If I'm missing any, just let me know.

With all that said, Unlynch.

Arbitrarily lynch Dunsparce.

 

[Danny]

@TimTh33nchant3r My request is for you to not flip, for the same reasons as I've previously stated. If you claim cop for example, then the mafia know exactly who to kill (unless there's a doctor hiding somewhere). Although you're likely making yourself a target for mafia anyway by soft claiming some type of power role. I still say it's best to keep our cards close to our chest until we have solid information to go on.