...when did you become so cool?
Wait. Even I was at a bar watching the results come in!
Guys! Am...am I cool now?
2016 Election Clusterfun
- Thread starter Colonel Thunder
- Start date
Wait. Even I was at a bar watching the results come in!
Guys! Am...am I cool now?
See, I had consumed just enough alcohol to enter the God state of drinking activities. Sunk two balls on the break followed four consecutive balls after that.
But then I had another beer.
Dude please stop sharing your sexual conquests in what I assume is weird sexual Canadian lingo.
You went to a birthday party! What were you doing watching the results?
They started it. The others in attendance are die-hard Bernie fans, and we had a pretty great time.
What makes this good for Bernie:
-A loss like the polling indicated would have meant his campaign was dead. If he convincingly lost the Rust Belt, I would have trouble seeing a path to the nomination for him. That's why the media didn't give a shit about the Bernie friendly states later on. Given his shitty polling in Michigan and on the 15th, if he performed anywhere near those numbers he just wouldn't be able to come back from that math.
-The polling being so wrong for the Democrats suggests that his chances could also be better in Ohio and Illinois (maybe even Florida as well) than what was predicted, which is also totally necessary if he wants to win. Like goddamn, primaries are known to be volatile and polls will be a bit more off here, but they haven't ate crow in an upset like this in, like, ever. (Granted, we have seen them underestimate victory margins. Hillary outperformed her polling average in South Carolina by like 20-25 percent. But an upset is different because reasons)
-He did much better with black people in Michigan than he did in the South. Still lost by a good margin, but if he can continue to avoid Republican-esque performances with them, then that will really help him in places with huge population centers (New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania).
What makes this not great for Bernie:
-I think Michigan is a bit more favorable to Bernie than the rest of that area, barring Indiana based on my gut check/shit I don't feel like looking up but think is true/BSing from the 538 benchmarks. A 1.5% lead isn't that big. He may not replicate a win in Illinois, Ohio, or Pennsylvania, though this does mean that he'll likely do much better than current polling averages.
-He outperformed the polling by a huge margin, but only broke the 538 benchmarks by a little bit. He didn't hit the poll numbers they targeted, but he did hit the delegate count because "proportional" isn't always based strictly off the final vote count because reasons. This is important because Bernie didn't just lose the South; his performance was more embarrassing than the Jeb Bush campaign. Nobody expected him to do so badly, including the benchmark projections. He has a lot of ground to make up in order to catch up not just to Hillary's delegate lead, but to close his own shortfalls. Michigan didn't push him towards the lead, it just kept him in the game.
The questions to come:
-Is the colossal polling fuck up just Michigan, or does it matter for future states? The thing here is that we haven't had a real Michigan primary in a while. In 2008, Obama wasn't on the ballot because reasons, and then Michigan had a fling as a caucus for a bit before that. So their builds could've been wrong because lack of recent data to build their demographic estimates. It's important to note that they weren't nearly this wrong about the GOP, so it's definitely an issue with the Democrats. If they made similar assumptions in Illinois and Ohio as they did Michigan, then the problem could show up there as well. I think there's a bit of both going on, because I find it hard to believe that Bernie can take a small win in Michigan then lose Ohio by double digits. They're not that different. I look forward to the polls that come out this weekend or so where the pollsters will perhaps adjust their models.
-Were Hillary voters too complacent? Meaning, did they just stay home or did they cross over because open primary and Trumpmania. 3% of the Democrat primary were Republicans, while 7% of the Republican primary were Democrats. Personally I don't put too much stock into this, but it was probably kindof a thing. Pollsters were also just really fucking dumb.
-Will Bernie be able to overcome Hillary's margins with Hispanics? He needs to deal with that in order to not lose the Southwest (New Mexico, Arizona, and California), and also Florida and anywhere else with good hispanic populations. Hillary blocking Bernie from winning in more well populated states makes his job a lot harder. And while 538 says that California just needs to be a tie, given the aforementioned asskicking that was the South, a strong win in California is very necessary for Bernie. Granted, California and New Mexico are among the last states to vote, but if he performs as well as his people are hoping (well... the non-delusional ones. There were BernieBros thinking he had a shot at Texas), then this could very well come down to the bitter end.
-Was Massachusetts a fluke? Massachusetts should've been a safe win for Bernie. It was not. You may think that Bernie winning the other three New England states is a good sign, but Maine, Vermont, and New Hampshire are all pretty rural. Massachusetts isn't, even if three of the four are reliably liberal (New Hampshire is weird). A big part of the Bernie path to the nomination is a strong showing in the Northwest and especially the Northeast to overcome his shortcomings in the South (because the flyover states only count for so much). I don't question him on Oregon and Washington, but the results in Mass could be troubling. He doesn't need to just win, he needs to win big. Democrats don't have winner take all states like the Republicans. The margin of victory matters.
-When will pollsters stop doing landline only polls? Like seriously. How is this still a thing.
-A loss like the polling indicated would have meant his campaign was dead. If he convincingly lost the Rust Belt, I would have trouble seeing a path to the nomination for him. That's why the media didn't give a shit about the Bernie friendly states later on. Given his shitty polling in Michigan and on the 15th, if he performed anywhere near those numbers he just wouldn't be able to come back from that math.
-The polling being so wrong for the Democrats suggests that his chances could also be better in Ohio and Illinois (maybe even Florida as well) than what was predicted, which is also totally necessary if he wants to win. Like goddamn, primaries are known to be volatile and polls will be a bit more off here, but they haven't ate crow in an upset like this in, like, ever. (Granted, we have seen them underestimate victory margins. Hillary outperformed her polling average in South Carolina by like 20-25 percent. But an upset is different because reasons)
-He did much better with black people in Michigan than he did in the South. Still lost by a good margin, but if he can continue to avoid Republican-esque performances with them, then that will really help him in places with huge population centers (New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania).
What makes this not great for Bernie:
-I think Michigan is a bit more favorable to Bernie than the rest of that area, barring Indiana based on my gut check/shit I don't feel like looking up but think is true/BSing from the 538 benchmarks. A 1.5% lead isn't that big. He may not replicate a win in Illinois, Ohio, or Pennsylvania, though this does mean that he'll likely do much better than current polling averages.
-He outperformed the polling by a huge margin, but only broke the 538 benchmarks by a little bit. He didn't hit the poll numbers they targeted, but he did hit the delegate count because "proportional" isn't always based strictly off the final vote count because reasons. This is important because Bernie didn't just lose the South; his performance was more embarrassing than the Jeb Bush campaign. Nobody expected him to do so badly, including the benchmark projections. He has a lot of ground to make up in order to catch up not just to Hillary's delegate lead, but to close his own shortfalls. Michigan didn't push him towards the lead, it just kept him in the game.
The questions to come:
-Is the colossal polling fuck up just Michigan, or does it matter for future states? The thing here is that we haven't had a real Michigan primary in a while. In 2008, Obama wasn't on the ballot because reasons, and then Michigan had a fling as a caucus for a bit before that. So their builds could've been wrong because lack of recent data to build their demographic estimates. It's important to note that they weren't nearly this wrong about the GOP, so it's definitely an issue with the Democrats. If they made similar assumptions in Illinois and Ohio as they did Michigan, then the problem could show up there as well. I think there's a bit of both going on, because I find it hard to believe that Bernie can take a small win in Michigan then lose Ohio by double digits. They're not that different. I look forward to the polls that come out this weekend or so where the pollsters will perhaps adjust their models.
-Were Hillary voters too complacent? Meaning, did they just stay home or did they cross over because open primary and Trumpmania. 3% of the Democrat primary were Republicans, while 7% of the Republican primary were Democrats. Personally I don't put too much stock into this, but it was probably kindof a thing. Pollsters were also just really fucking dumb.
-Will Bernie be able to overcome Hillary's margins with Hispanics? He needs to deal with that in order to not lose the Southwest (New Mexico, Arizona, and California), and also Florida and anywhere else with good hispanic populations. Hillary blocking Bernie from winning in more well populated states makes his job a lot harder. And while 538 says that California just needs to be a tie, given the aforementioned asskicking that was the South, a strong win in California is very necessary for Bernie. Granted, California and New Mexico are among the last states to vote, but if he performs as well as his people are hoping (well... the non-delusional ones. There were BernieBros thinking he had a shot at Texas), then this could very well come down to the bitter end.
-Was Massachusetts a fluke? Massachusetts should've been a safe win for Bernie. It was not. You may think that Bernie winning the other three New England states is a good sign, but Maine, Vermont, and New Hampshire are all pretty rural. Massachusetts isn't, even if three of the four are reliably liberal (New Hampshire is weird). A big part of the Bernie path to the nomination is a strong showing in the Northwest and especially the Northeast to overcome his shortcomings in the South (because the flyover states only count for so much). I don't question him on Oregon and Washington, but the results in Mass could be troubling. He doesn't need to just win, he needs to win big. Democrats don't have winner take all states like the Republicans. The margin of victory matters.
-When will pollsters stop doing landline only polls? Like seriously. How is this still a thing.
I had this thought the other day. There is one never going to happen magical ticket I would vote for over Bernie.
Kasich O'Malley. Never going to happen in a million years, but the two moderates from both races? That level of commitment to unity and compromise would totally earn my vote. Bernie's polarizing nature of being, well, super far left by American standards is my only real issue with him at this point. But it's hard to knock him for it when I genuinely believe that, regardless of political polarization, he's the candidate we've needed for quite a while now. It actually explains a lot being in this position.
Kasich O'Malley. Never going to happen in a million years, but the two moderates from both races? That level of commitment to unity and compromise would totally earn my vote. Bernie's polarizing nature of being, well, super far left by American standards is my only real issue with him at this point. But it's hard to knock him for it when I genuinely believe that, regardless of political polarization, he's the candidate we've needed for quite a while now. It actually explains a lot being in this position.
Worth saying that neither of those two are truly moderate in a Lieberman/Jon Huntsman sorta way. Kasich is a bonafide conservative, he's just a 90s era conservative (one of the wave of representatives that came in with the Gingrich Revolution) rather than the current crop of cray cray. He seems moderate because he was the only major candidate who was reasonable, qualified, calm, and not Jeb Bush. Meanwhile, before the election O'Malley was positioning himself to take the position as "liberal alternative to Hillary", and Hillary's fairly liberal herself. Of course, Bernie fucked that up by going left so hard he went right, and then went left again. Of course, idk if O'Malley shifted messaging later on, because his campaign had about as much relevance as Vermin Supreme's.
Still a solid ticket though imo. Anything that can reverse this horrible polarization and each party getting more and more radical.
Still a solid ticket though imo. Anything that can reverse this horrible polarization and each party getting more and more radical.
So Trump and Clinton won some more.
D
Deleted member 13
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Unregsistered User
Considering how abysmally low of a chance Bernie has at taking the nomination at this point, I dare say it's time we take the "political" out of "political revolution".
MAKE THE PROLETARIAT GREAT AGAIN
MAKE THE PROLETARIAT GREAT AGAIN
Considering how abysmally low of a chance Bernie has at taking the nomination at this point, I dare say it's time we take the "political" out of "political revolution".
MAKE THE PROLETARIAT GREAT AGAIN
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Wow, is that like literally everyone in Ukraine?
I didn't think those silly little satellite nations had much of a populace.
How'd they get the time off from their farm?
I didn't think those silly little satellite nations had much of a populace.
How'd they get the time off from their farm?
D
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Would be much cooler if it wasn't done by right-wing reactionaries.