WHELP. What can I say, I like tuh make money; get turnt.
Republicans
Let's look at PA tomorrow because the situation in PA is grade A idiotic. So we're looking at Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Delaware, the latter two now actually having polling.
Connecticut
Connecticut has 28 bound delegates available, of which Trump is looking to win all of them. 3 are awarded winner-take-all for each congressional district (five districts, totaling to 15 delegates), while the remaining 13 are distributed proportionally, unless a candidate (Trump) hits the 50% threshold, in which case it's a winner-take-all situation. Trump's goal is to hit 50% in Connecticut, and sweep the districts. Trump usually doesn't overperform his poll numbers, because he does poorly with late-deciding voters. The reasons for which are fairly intuitive. However, in New York this trend reversed. Trump very much beat his poll numbers. Instead of skirting over 50%, he stuck comfortably at 60%. It's possible that his bluster and general demeanor appealed rather hard to New York Republicans, particularly as opposed to the calm toned grandpa of John Kasich and Ted "I half of the primary shitting on the Northeast to appeal to the rural heartland" Cruz. Of course, as of Sunday, Trump's polls have him easily clearing 50% state-wide, so barring a troubling shift, he will take those 13 delegates.
So what about those districts?
1st- Somewhat oddly shaped (not Maryland level odd, but like a reverse C), but includes Hartford. Hartford, a city which exists to make the drive from NYC to Boston more annoying. Still, Trump does well with urban whites if they aren't rich, and overall he's likely to take this one.
2nd- The eastern half of CT. Nobody really cares about this stretch of CT, it's just the part of 84 that has too many cops on it trying to fuck us over because god forbid we want to go fast on a stretch of highway that has an exit every never miles. Trump will win because he does well in areas that are rural but not too religious.
3rd- New Haven. It's like Hartford, but way sketchier.
4th- This is the southwest NY suburb really preppy part of CT. aka what you assume the whole state is like. Stamford and Fairfield County, aka one of the richest places in the whole damn country. Trump could win here because goddamn large margins in the state, but Kasich could put in some good pressure here. Kasich won Manhattan, though Trump and the Manhattan elite really hate each other which would've buoyed Kasich. Still, that's the best chance #NotTrump has.
5th- Oh god, the 5th. This includes Danbury and Waterbury, the latter of which is like New Haven-lite. Super trashy. Trump is the king of the White Trash vote. 3 for him.
Stealthy Prediction: Trump takes all 28. Potential tossup of 3, which I lean towards Trump
Delaware
Delaware has 16 delegates allocated Ohio-style winner-take-every-single-one. Trump is, obviously, wanting all of them. But can he do it?
Yeah. Probably. Like, again, Kasich is gonna try for it with some good local support from officials and the whole pro-corporate vote, but Trump does well in bordering PA, nearby eastern Maryland, and in the only public Delaware poll is taking 55 of the vote. Granted, that poll is Gravis who are not great pollsters, but it'll be hard for Kasich to catch up. Trump would be needing to have a very bad night for this to happen, even with the new Kasich-Cruz collusion.
Stealthy Prediction: Trump takes all 16
Rhode Island
Rhode Island is boring, or at least it was until Kasich and Cruz decided to actually settle on a #NeverTrump path. Rhode Island is boring because it's proportional. 19 delegates. 13 given proportionally, and 3 for each of the two districts also distributed proportionally. A candidate must meet 10% to earn a delegate. While Cruz is close to ducking under 10%, we could see a very boring 1-1-1 split. Trump is, again, crushing it statewide, so he'll take the lion's share of those delegates, but the real question is if the news of collusion is strong enough to turn Cruz voters into strategic Kasich voters. In which case, hilariously, Trump is likely to earn more delegates from Rhode Island. I'm gonna go ahead and jump out on a limb and say this happens.
Stealthy Prediction: Trump takes 12
Democrats
This does not look good for Bernie.
Bernie is looking for at least 10/21 from Delaware, 32/55 from CT, and 16/24 from Rhode Island. This computes to roughly a 16 and 33 pt lead in CT and RI respectively, and a 5 pt Clinton lead in Delaware. This is generally very difficult to achieve. Minority and affluent populations aside, Hartford (aside from being the aforementioned traffic burden) is a health insurance headquarters while Delaware is a corporate haven. Both bode poorly for Bernie atop of the, again, black and affluent factors.
Bernie is currently leading in Rhode Island, but not by nearly enough. He and Hillary are fairly neck and neck, rather than the big blowout he wants. Overall polling isn't great, but it's still unlikely that Bernie accomplishes his targets.
Gravis gives Hillary only a 7pt lead on Bernie in Delaware, and while Gravis is, again, not a great pollster, this is fairly okay news for Bernie. Worth saying though that the Gravis poll has hella big amounts of undecided voters. As in 17% undecided. Overall, Bernie could do okay, especially if some rich white voters move from Hillary to the #NeverTrump movement and go Kasich, but again, it won't be easy for him to hit that 5 pt loss target.
Hillary has a strong lead according to Quinnipiac, and a slight one according to PPP. PPP is a strong and professional polling firm (not Gallup, but still well-respected), while the other is a bit better at their shit. Even if Hillary doesn't replicate her 20 pt New York win, it doesn't look good for Bernie to get that 16 pt win.
Bernie could claim victories on Tuesday. He will still be the loser because he is unlikely to win by enough. It kinda sucks if you're really feeling the Bern, but the odds of getting our first female president are pretty damn high.