Like I needed another reason to ignore Dirty Sanders.
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2016 Election Clusterfun
- Thread starter Colonel Thunder
- Start date
Alright so a bunch of states vote on Tuesday so I'm gonna try to do a preview a day at a time. Starting now to give me a one day buffer if I miss a day (likely tomorrow or day after).
Maryland
We're starting with Maryland because I know I have the time for it, polling in Delaware, Rhode Island, and Connecticut is lacking, and I don't feel like dealing with PA right now. Because goddamn is the GOP side of PA dumb. Overall we could use some better polling (we got fuck all in Rhode Island and Delaware), but for now I think we gon be alright.
Republicans
Maryland is a closed primary and has 38 Republican delegates and they are allocated similarly to Wisconsin's. 14 are winner-take-all for the winner of the statewide vote. 3 go to the winner of each congressional district, of which there are 8.
Donald Trump's Target: 32
538 Polling Forecast: 44.0-Trump, 29.0 Kasich, 25.1 Cruz
539 Polls-Plus Forecast: 40.3-Trump, 30.7 Kasich, 27.0 Cruz
Worth saying that this is the average rather than the whole curve. Polls-Plus gives a slight overlap between Trump and Kasich, but either way Trump is a strong favorite to win the state-wide vote. 4 of the last 5 polls put Trump in the 40s, with a double digit lead. The fifth is an outlier by a pollster that I'm pretty sure isn't very great, so Trump's looking pretty good at nabbing those 14 delegates. There is the threat of strategic voting, but I think Cruz voters are unlikely to do this, meaning Kasich voters would have to do it again. Not sure if Maryland is gonna be as resistant to hop to Cruz as New York was (New York really doesn't like Cruz), but it's possible that they won't unless it looks like Cruz has a better chance.
So let's look at the districts, the horribly misshapen super gerrymandered districts. Trump is likely to do a strong sweep in the state, but his main issues are the 3rd, 4th, and 5th districts. Trump didn't do so hot in NOVA (northern Virginia), and instead the area preferred Rubio. Maryland's DC suburbs should then act similarly and lean Kasich. The 4th is primarily these suburbs, so unless Donald has a really good night then Kasich's gonna be the favorite here. The 3rd... oh my god Maryland why do you do this. Yeah I'm not guessing on this one. Let's just call it competitive. The 5th has some Washington suburbs, but also coastal counties that Trump did fairly well in down in Virginia so this should be competitive, but I kinda wanna lean Trump here. The 1st and 6th are coastal and Appalachia respectively, which'll both be good Trump wins. That leaves the 2nd and 7th, both of which include Baltimore. With the blacks out of the picture (because Republicans), we're looking at the whites. Poor urban whites are fairly Trump-y. Overall that 40% is coming from somewhere, and if it's not the DC suburbs, we're looking at the Baltimore urban whites. So let's call them Trump's. And finally the 8th, it has some DC surburbs, but also a lot of instate up to the PA border. Gonna be another competitive one.
Stealthy's Projection: Trump has a safe 26, Kasich will likely get 3 from the 4th, and Cruz nada. 9 tossup. If Kasich gets all of them, then Trump must be having a bad night and I doubt that'll happen, especially with his poll numbers holding. New York may be a bit of an outlier in the Trumpmania, but I'm gonna give Trump 2 of them. Kasich's campaign is not great and, especially with Cruz draining votes, I find it hard to see him taking more than two districts. I reserve the right to adjust with new polling, but gonna call it 32-6.
Nate Silver's Projection: 29 (Made on 4/13) He's handing Trump the 8th.
The Other Guys: Cruz is still hoping that he'll get some strategic voting boosts, or at least take 2nd over Kasich. Eh. Kasich is really wanting to take some of those tossups in his quest to achieve relevance as a Trump alternative and generally avoid being a footnote in this presidential race. It's not impossible.
Democrats
Maryland's giving out 95 delegates on Tuesday. Nate Silver recalculated Bernie's targets Tuesday night, though they were based on him coming home with 110 delegates and he's coming up just short of that, but we're gonna go with them anyway.
Bernie's Target: 44 delegates, or roughly 46%
Current polling averages... don't support this. Hillary's numbers in the polls have consistently been in the high 50s, while Bernie's dangling in the 30s. Maryland's got a whole lot of black people and rich people, so... not Bernie's best state. 538's Polls Only is aiming at 60-36, while Polls Plus is 63-33. That gives him a delegate count in the mid thirties, which is not what he's looking for. He can tap into Appalachia, but that's not as well populated and overall he's gonna have trouble in a super white-collar state.
I think 60-40 may be the best he can do.
Maryland
We're starting with Maryland because I know I have the time for it, polling in Delaware, Rhode Island, and Connecticut is lacking, and I don't feel like dealing with PA right now. Because goddamn is the GOP side of PA dumb. Overall we could use some better polling (we got fuck all in Rhode Island and Delaware), but for now I think we gon be alright.
Republicans
Maryland is a closed primary and has 38 Republican delegates and they are allocated similarly to Wisconsin's. 14 are winner-take-all for the winner of the statewide vote. 3 go to the winner of each congressional district, of which there are 8.
Donald Trump's Target: 32
538 Polling Forecast: 44.0-Trump, 29.0 Kasich, 25.1 Cruz
539 Polls-Plus Forecast: 40.3-Trump, 30.7 Kasich, 27.0 Cruz
Worth saying that this is the average rather than the whole curve. Polls-Plus gives a slight overlap between Trump and Kasich, but either way Trump is a strong favorite to win the state-wide vote. 4 of the last 5 polls put Trump in the 40s, with a double digit lead. The fifth is an outlier by a pollster that I'm pretty sure isn't very great, so Trump's looking pretty good at nabbing those 14 delegates. There is the threat of strategic voting, but I think Cruz voters are unlikely to do this, meaning Kasich voters would have to do it again. Not sure if Maryland is gonna be as resistant to hop to Cruz as New York was (New York really doesn't like Cruz), but it's possible that they won't unless it looks like Cruz has a better chance.
So let's look at the districts, the horribly misshapen super gerrymandered districts. Trump is likely to do a strong sweep in the state, but his main issues are the 3rd, 4th, and 5th districts. Trump didn't do so hot in NOVA (northern Virginia), and instead the area preferred Rubio. Maryland's DC suburbs should then act similarly and lean Kasich. The 4th is primarily these suburbs, so unless Donald has a really good night then Kasich's gonna be the favorite here. The 3rd... oh my god Maryland why do you do this. Yeah I'm not guessing on this one. Let's just call it competitive. The 5th has some Washington suburbs, but also coastal counties that Trump did fairly well in down in Virginia so this should be competitive, but I kinda wanna lean Trump here. The 1st and 6th are coastal and Appalachia respectively, which'll both be good Trump wins. That leaves the 2nd and 7th, both of which include Baltimore. With the blacks out of the picture (because Republicans), we're looking at the whites. Poor urban whites are fairly Trump-y. Overall that 40% is coming from somewhere, and if it's not the DC suburbs, we're looking at the Baltimore urban whites. So let's call them Trump's. And finally the 8th, it has some DC surburbs, but also a lot of instate up to the PA border. Gonna be another competitive one.
Stealthy's Projection: Trump has a safe 26, Kasich will likely get 3 from the 4th, and Cruz nada. 9 tossup. If Kasich gets all of them, then Trump must be having a bad night and I doubt that'll happen, especially with his poll numbers holding. New York may be a bit of an outlier in the Trumpmania, but I'm gonna give Trump 2 of them. Kasich's campaign is not great and, especially with Cruz draining votes, I find it hard to see him taking more than two districts. I reserve the right to adjust with new polling, but gonna call it 32-6.
Nate Silver's Projection: 29 (Made on 4/13) He's handing Trump the 8th.
The Other Guys: Cruz is still hoping that he'll get some strategic voting boosts, or at least take 2nd over Kasich. Eh. Kasich is really wanting to take some of those tossups in his quest to achieve relevance as a Trump alternative and generally avoid being a footnote in this presidential race. It's not impossible.
Democrats
Maryland's giving out 95 delegates on Tuesday. Nate Silver recalculated Bernie's targets Tuesday night, though they were based on him coming home with 110 delegates and he's coming up just short of that, but we're gonna go with them anyway.
Bernie's Target: 44 delegates, or roughly 46%
Current polling averages... don't support this. Hillary's numbers in the polls have consistently been in the high 50s, while Bernie's dangling in the 30s. Maryland's got a whole lot of black people and rich people, so... not Bernie's best state. 538's Polls Only is aiming at 60-36, while Polls Plus is 63-33. That gives him a delegate count in the mid thirties, which is not what he's looking for. He can tap into Appalachia, but that's not as well populated and overall he's gonna have trouble in a super white-collar state.
I think 60-40 may be the best he can do.
WHELP. What can I say, I like tuh make money; get turnt.
Republicans
Let's look at PA tomorrow because the situation in PA is grade A idiotic. So we're looking at Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Delaware, the latter two now actually having polling.
Connecticut
Connecticut has 28 bound delegates available, of which Trump is looking to win all of them. 3 are awarded winner-take-all for each congressional district (five districts, totaling to 15 delegates), while the remaining 13 are distributed proportionally, unless a candidate (Trump) hits the 50% threshold, in which case it's a winner-take-all situation. Trump's goal is to hit 50% in Connecticut, and sweep the districts. Trump usually doesn't overperform his poll numbers, because he does poorly with late-deciding voters. The reasons for which are fairly intuitive. However, in New York this trend reversed. Trump very much beat his poll numbers. Instead of skirting over 50%, he stuck comfortably at 60%. It's possible that his bluster and general demeanor appealed rather hard to New York Republicans, particularly as opposed to the calm toned grandpa of John Kasich and Ted "I half of the primary shitting on the Northeast to appeal to the rural heartland" Cruz. Of course, as of Sunday, Trump's polls have him easily clearing 50% state-wide, so barring a troubling shift, he will take those 13 delegates.
So what about those districts?
1st- Somewhat oddly shaped (not Maryland level odd, but like a reverse C), but includes Hartford. Hartford, a city which exists to make the drive from NYC to Boston more annoying. Still, Trump does well with urban whites if they aren't rich, and overall he's likely to take this one.
2nd- The eastern half of CT. Nobody really cares about this stretch of CT, it's just the part of 84 that has too many cops on it trying to fuck us over because god forbid we want to go fast on a stretch of highway that has an exit every never miles. Trump will win because he does well in areas that are rural but not too religious.
3rd- New Haven. It's like Hartford, but way sketchier.
4th- This is the southwest NY suburb really preppy part of CT. aka what you assume the whole state is like. Stamford and Fairfield County, aka one of the richest places in the whole damn country. Trump could win here because goddamn large margins in the state, but Kasich could put in some good pressure here. Kasich won Manhattan, though Trump and the Manhattan elite really hate each other which would've buoyed Kasich. Still, that's the best chance #NotTrump has.
5th- Oh god, the 5th. This includes Danbury and Waterbury, the latter of which is like New Haven-lite. Super trashy. Trump is the king of the White Trash vote. 3 for him.
Stealthy Prediction: Trump takes all 28. Potential tossup of 3, which I lean towards Trump
Delaware
Delaware has 16 delegates allocated Ohio-style winner-take-every-single-one. Trump is, obviously, wanting all of them. But can he do it?
Yeah. Probably. Like, again, Kasich is gonna try for it with some good local support from officials and the whole pro-corporate vote, but Trump does well in bordering PA, nearby eastern Maryland, and in the only public Delaware poll is taking 55 of the vote. Granted, that poll is Gravis who are not great pollsters, but it'll be hard for Kasich to catch up. Trump would be needing to have a very bad night for this to happen, even with the new Kasich-Cruz collusion.
Stealthy Prediction: Trump takes all 16
Rhode Island
Rhode Island is boring, or at least it was until Kasich and Cruz decided to actually settle on a #NeverTrump path. Rhode Island is boring because it's proportional. 19 delegates. 13 given proportionally, and 3 for each of the two districts also distributed proportionally. A candidate must meet 10% to earn a delegate. While Cruz is close to ducking under 10%, we could see a very boring 1-1-1 split. Trump is, again, crushing it statewide, so he'll take the lion's share of those delegates, but the real question is if the news of collusion is strong enough to turn Cruz voters into strategic Kasich voters. In which case, hilariously, Trump is likely to earn more delegates from Rhode Island. I'm gonna go ahead and jump out on a limb and say this happens.
Stealthy Prediction: Trump takes 12
Democrats
This does not look good for Bernie.
Bernie is looking for at least 10/21 from Delaware, 32/55 from CT, and 16/24 from Rhode Island. This computes to roughly a 16 and 33 pt lead in CT and RI respectively, and a 5 pt Clinton lead in Delaware. This is generally very difficult to achieve. Minority and affluent populations aside, Hartford (aside from being the aforementioned traffic burden) is a health insurance headquarters while Delaware is a corporate haven. Both bode poorly for Bernie atop of the, again, black and affluent factors.
Bernie is currently leading in Rhode Island, but not by nearly enough. He and Hillary are fairly neck and neck, rather than the big blowout he wants. Overall polling isn't great, but it's still unlikely that Bernie accomplishes his targets.
Gravis gives Hillary only a 7pt lead on Bernie in Delaware, and while Gravis is, again, not a great pollster, this is fairly okay news for Bernie. Worth saying though that the Gravis poll has hella big amounts of undecided voters. As in 17% undecided. Overall, Bernie could do okay, especially if some rich white voters move from Hillary to the #NeverTrump movement and go Kasich, but again, it won't be easy for him to hit that 5 pt loss target.
Hillary has a strong lead according to Quinnipiac, and a slight one according to PPP. PPP is a strong and professional polling firm (not Gallup, but still well-respected), while the other is a bit better at their shit. Even if Hillary doesn't replicate her 20 pt New York win, it doesn't look good for Bernie to get that 16 pt win.
Bernie could claim victories on Tuesday. He will still be the loser because he is unlikely to win by enough. It kinda sucks if you're really feeling the Bern, but the odds of getting our first female president are pretty damn high.
Republicans
Let's look at PA tomorrow because the situation in PA is grade A idiotic. So we're looking at Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Delaware, the latter two now actually having polling.
Connecticut
Connecticut has 28 bound delegates available, of which Trump is looking to win all of them. 3 are awarded winner-take-all for each congressional district (five districts, totaling to 15 delegates), while the remaining 13 are distributed proportionally, unless a candidate (Trump) hits the 50% threshold, in which case it's a winner-take-all situation. Trump's goal is to hit 50% in Connecticut, and sweep the districts. Trump usually doesn't overperform his poll numbers, because he does poorly with late-deciding voters. The reasons for which are fairly intuitive. However, in New York this trend reversed. Trump very much beat his poll numbers. Instead of skirting over 50%, he stuck comfortably at 60%. It's possible that his bluster and general demeanor appealed rather hard to New York Republicans, particularly as opposed to the calm toned grandpa of John Kasich and Ted "I half of the primary shitting on the Northeast to appeal to the rural heartland" Cruz. Of course, as of Sunday, Trump's polls have him easily clearing 50% state-wide, so barring a troubling shift, he will take those 13 delegates.
So what about those districts?
1st- Somewhat oddly shaped (not Maryland level odd, but like a reverse C), but includes Hartford. Hartford, a city which exists to make the drive from NYC to Boston more annoying. Still, Trump does well with urban whites if they aren't rich, and overall he's likely to take this one.
2nd- The eastern half of CT. Nobody really cares about this stretch of CT, it's just the part of 84 that has too many cops on it trying to fuck us over because god forbid we want to go fast on a stretch of highway that has an exit every never miles. Trump will win because he does well in areas that are rural but not too religious.
3rd- New Haven. It's like Hartford, but way sketchier.
4th- This is the southwest NY suburb really preppy part of CT. aka what you assume the whole state is like. Stamford and Fairfield County, aka one of the richest places in the whole damn country. Trump could win here because goddamn large margins in the state, but Kasich could put in some good pressure here. Kasich won Manhattan, though Trump and the Manhattan elite really hate each other which would've buoyed Kasich. Still, that's the best chance #NotTrump has.
5th- Oh god, the 5th. This includes Danbury and Waterbury, the latter of which is like New Haven-lite. Super trashy. Trump is the king of the White Trash vote. 3 for him.
Stealthy Prediction: Trump takes all 28. Potential tossup of 3, which I lean towards Trump
Delaware
Delaware has 16 delegates allocated Ohio-style winner-take-every-single-one. Trump is, obviously, wanting all of them. But can he do it?
Yeah. Probably. Like, again, Kasich is gonna try for it with some good local support from officials and the whole pro-corporate vote, but Trump does well in bordering PA, nearby eastern Maryland, and in the only public Delaware poll is taking 55 of the vote. Granted, that poll is Gravis who are not great pollsters, but it'll be hard for Kasich to catch up. Trump would be needing to have a very bad night for this to happen, even with the new Kasich-Cruz collusion.
Stealthy Prediction: Trump takes all 16
Rhode Island
Rhode Island is boring, or at least it was until Kasich and Cruz decided to actually settle on a #NeverTrump path. Rhode Island is boring because it's proportional. 19 delegates. 13 given proportionally, and 3 for each of the two districts also distributed proportionally. A candidate must meet 10% to earn a delegate. While Cruz is close to ducking under 10%, we could see a very boring 1-1-1 split. Trump is, again, crushing it statewide, so he'll take the lion's share of those delegates, but the real question is if the news of collusion is strong enough to turn Cruz voters into strategic Kasich voters. In which case, hilariously, Trump is likely to earn more delegates from Rhode Island. I'm gonna go ahead and jump out on a limb and say this happens.
Stealthy Prediction: Trump takes 12
Democrats
This does not look good for Bernie.
Bernie is looking for at least 10/21 from Delaware, 32/55 from CT, and 16/24 from Rhode Island. This computes to roughly a 16 and 33 pt lead in CT and RI respectively, and a 5 pt Clinton lead in Delaware. This is generally very difficult to achieve. Minority and affluent populations aside, Hartford (aside from being the aforementioned traffic burden) is a health insurance headquarters while Delaware is a corporate haven. Both bode poorly for Bernie atop of the, again, black and affluent factors.
Bernie is currently leading in Rhode Island, but not by nearly enough. He and Hillary are fairly neck and neck, rather than the big blowout he wants. Overall polling isn't great, but it's still unlikely that Bernie accomplishes his targets.
Gravis gives Hillary only a 7pt lead on Bernie in Delaware, and while Gravis is, again, not a great pollster, this is fairly okay news for Bernie. Worth saying though that the Gravis poll has hella big amounts of undecided voters. As in 17% undecided. Overall, Bernie could do okay, especially if some rich white voters move from Hillary to the #NeverTrump movement and go Kasich, but again, it won't be easy for him to hit that 5 pt loss target.
Hillary has a strong lead according to Quinnipiac, and a slight one according to PPP. PPP is a strong and professional polling firm (not Gallup, but still well-respected), while the other is a bit better at their shit. Even if Hillary doesn't replicate her 20 pt New York win, it doesn't look good for Bernie to get that 16 pt win.
Bernie could claim victories on Tuesday. He will still be the loser because he is unlikely to win by enough. It kinda sucks if you're really feeling the Bern, but the odds of getting our first female president are pretty damn high.
Relevant!
Link!
TC and special guest Stealthy talk about the ongoing "Not-Quite-Super-Tuesday" event in the world's greatest game of Nerd Football, United States politics.
The discussion closes with what Stealthy would do as president, who Stealthy supports for Forum Mayor, and why he keeps dying Night 1 in Mafia.
Want to continue the political conversation? Bring your political comments over to the Stupor Tuesday thread so youdon't clog my podcast thread can talk with your peers in depth!
TC and special guest Stealthy talk about the ongoing "Not-Quite-Super-Tuesday" event in the world's greatest game of Nerd Football, United States politics.
The discussion closes with what Stealthy would do as president, who Stealthy supports for Forum Mayor, and why he keeps dying Night 1 in Mafia.
Want to continue the political conversation? Bring your political comments over to the Stupor Tuesday thread so you
Held my nose and voted for Cruz today in PA. Let's see this clusterfuck of a Republican National Convention. Honestly I dislike all 5 candidates right now, but fuck it, why just hand it to Trump?
Because he's the best candidate.
Yeah, and that is totally also a thing to do, but tax policy is ugh and I wanted to not make the point that's been made a 1000 times. This is just a thing that's always been in the back of my mind; addressing what "cutting back on spending for the deficit" would actually require. I'm sure that making our big programs cost less while still being good at what they do (and they are good at what they do) is not an easy request, but it's better than this bullshit pretending about how all these small cuts are gonna be life savers. Especially because you can shave 10B off Social Security and do less damage to the country than 10B off discretionary.
@Steal Thy Kill ! Any new commentary now that the results are in?
Trump had a fantastic night. A huge sweep, winning nearly all the delegates offered. He's now less than 300 away from 1237. He's clearing majorities with no regards for the closed nature of the primary. He's been trying to fight the #NotTrump movement with an argument of inevitability and talking about how the process is kinda rigged to try and screw him out of the nomination he's rightfully winning. It's actually a decent argument to some extent. Of course, the GOP system has worked rather stupendously for him what with this winner-take-all junk, but he is getting massively screwed by the shadow primary.
This leads me to Pennsylvania. Trump is listed as winning 17 delegates in Pennsylvania despite the fact that PA should have more delegates than Rhode Island. The answer is the biggest example of electoral idiocy in the primaries: unbound elected delegates.
See, whenever you win a primary contest, you get a number of delegates bound to you for the convention; the number depending on the rules of that state. They're like votes in the electoral college. Typically, a candidate is a clear winner before the convention and is able to secure the nomination and the majority of the delegates no problem. But there's a pretty good chance that this won't happen for the GOP. So what happens then? These delegates, or at least most of them, are released from the results of the elections of their states and can vote as they wish. Some are bound until the second or third ballots, but overall they can vote how they wish. Some will lean towards the results of their states, but enough of them will swap because somebody has to get 1237.
So who are these delegates?
You may think that they're all party officials and members of Congress and Governors and so forth. People that you'd consider "establishment" types, but that's not really the case. The Party names 3 of them, but the rest are selected by other means. Trump is really bad at making sure these people are his people, and he's also not very good at finding people to be his delegates. Cruz, on the other hand, is really good at making sure those people are his people. It's the number 1 reason why Cruz is likely to win the nomination if Trump can't secure it on the first ballot. For example, in Maine, 19 out of 20 delegates selected at the state convention were Cruz backers, and while Cruz did win the state, Trump is owed 9 of those delegates on the first ballot. Almost all of them will jump to Cruz after that. This isn't a unique situation, and it's a story that's happened across the country.
But that's not the worst of it.
The worst of it is electing delegates who are listed on the ballot. Actually, the worst of it is electing delegates who are listed on the ballot without labels for their candidate preference. Actually, the worst of it is electing delegates who are listed on the ballot without labels for their candidate preference who are also unbound. And that is exactly what the case was in Pennsylvania, minus those 17 delegates. 54 delegates can vote without regard for the popular vote in their state, and have preferences completely unknown to the average voter. Now, many of these delegates have claimed to represent whichever candidate won the district they represent (3 per, as you may have picked up on is the usual), but if they aren't Trump supporters, then you can expect that they'll be facing some damn strong pressure to not vote Trump on the first ballot if Trump falls just short of 1237. And some of them may very well capitulate, if not because they have traded political favors for their vote, then because they just don't like Trump and were elected by Trump supporters who just didn't know better. Because why would they?
There's a good chance that Trump won't make 1237, but given his strong performances in the northeast, he could come close (Indiana next week will be key). Frankly, if he gets 1200, then he probably deserves the nomination, but he could be denied it simply because the delegates he would have rightfully won in Pennsylvania are eschewing the will of the voters.
It's not about whether or not Trump is a good candidate. He isn't. I don't support Trump one bit, but we're talking about a flaw with the system, in which case you need to divorce the victim from the problem. In the old days, nomination was ultimately decided by the party elites. The primary process was not binding when it first started, and of course before then there was the whole smoke-filled-room thing. The idea was to prevent the nomination from going to somebody who couldn't win or, worse, would damage the party brand. So basically, to prevent people like Trump, Cruz, and Bernie from winning. This is bullshit, and about as an even worse perversion of democracy than a fucking caucus.
(The Democrats of course have some of these problems simply because the delegate system is flawed, but massive number of superdelegates aside, they do a bit better than the GOP. And Pennsylvania in the GOP was just real horseshit)
Oh, and with the Democrats we could go into detail, but the verdict is pretty straightforward. Hillary won. After a whole lot of body blows, I think this is the final knockout punch to the Bernie campaign. Not that this means he'll stop campaigning out of sheer stubbornness.
This leads me to Pennsylvania. Trump is listed as winning 17 delegates in Pennsylvania despite the fact that PA should have more delegates than Rhode Island. The answer is the biggest example of electoral idiocy in the primaries: unbound elected delegates.
See, whenever you win a primary contest, you get a number of delegates bound to you for the convention; the number depending on the rules of that state. They're like votes in the electoral college. Typically, a candidate is a clear winner before the convention and is able to secure the nomination and the majority of the delegates no problem. But there's a pretty good chance that this won't happen for the GOP. So what happens then? These delegates, or at least most of them, are released from the results of the elections of their states and can vote as they wish. Some are bound until the second or third ballots, but overall they can vote how they wish. Some will lean towards the results of their states, but enough of them will swap because somebody has to get 1237.
So who are these delegates?
You may think that they're all party officials and members of Congress and Governors and so forth. People that you'd consider "establishment" types, but that's not really the case. The Party names 3 of them, but the rest are selected by other means. Trump is really bad at making sure these people are his people, and he's also not very good at finding people to be his delegates. Cruz, on the other hand, is really good at making sure those people are his people. It's the number 1 reason why Cruz is likely to win the nomination if Trump can't secure it on the first ballot. For example, in Maine, 19 out of 20 delegates selected at the state convention were Cruz backers, and while Cruz did win the state, Trump is owed 9 of those delegates on the first ballot. Almost all of them will jump to Cruz after that. This isn't a unique situation, and it's a story that's happened across the country.
But that's not the worst of it.
The worst of it is electing delegates who are listed on the ballot. Actually, the worst of it is electing delegates who are listed on the ballot without labels for their candidate preference. Actually, the worst of it is electing delegates who are listed on the ballot without labels for their candidate preference who are also unbound. And that is exactly what the case was in Pennsylvania, minus those 17 delegates. 54 delegates can vote without regard for the popular vote in their state, and have preferences completely unknown to the average voter. Now, many of these delegates have claimed to represent whichever candidate won the district they represent (3 per, as you may have picked up on is the usual), but if they aren't Trump supporters, then you can expect that they'll be facing some damn strong pressure to not vote Trump on the first ballot if Trump falls just short of 1237. And some of them may very well capitulate, if not because they have traded political favors for their vote, then because they just don't like Trump and were elected by Trump supporters who just didn't know better. Because why would they?
There's a good chance that Trump won't make 1237, but given his strong performances in the northeast, he could come close (Indiana next week will be key). Frankly, if he gets 1200, then he probably deserves the nomination, but he could be denied it simply because the delegates he would have rightfully won in Pennsylvania are eschewing the will of the voters.
It's not about whether or not Trump is a good candidate. He isn't. I don't support Trump one bit, but we're talking about a flaw with the system, in which case you need to divorce the victim from the problem. In the old days, nomination was ultimately decided by the party elites. The primary process was not binding when it first started, and of course before then there was the whole smoke-filled-room thing. The idea was to prevent the nomination from going to somebody who couldn't win or, worse, would damage the party brand. So basically, to prevent people like Trump, Cruz, and Bernie from winning. This is bullshit, and about as an even worse perversion of democracy than a fucking caucus.
(The Democrats of course have some of these problems simply because the delegate system is flawed, but massive number of superdelegates aside, they do a bit better than the GOP. And Pennsylvania in the GOP was just real horseshit)
Oh, and with the Democrats we could go into detail, but the verdict is pretty straightforward. Hillary won. After a whole lot of body blows, I think this is the final knockout punch to the Bernie campaign. Not that this means he'll stop campaigning out of sheer stubbornness.
Y'know. Win or not, the longer he campaigns the more progressive Hillary gets. Might as well spend all that money.
Not that I expect her to get much done anyway, on account of how much the Republican base absolutely goddamn hates her.
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I'm largely having faith in Paul Ryan. Paul Ryan, while hugely conservative, is a guy who isn't crazy, legitimately wants to accomplish things, and can actually control the Freedom Caucus (the far conservative section of the House that was the bane of Boehner's existence). He negotiated a spending deal with Obama earlier, and I'm hoping that he'll be able to return Congress to being a compromising opposition rather than an obstructionist one. It's still not gonna be great, but it'll be an improvement, especially if Ryan's facing pressure from the results of a catastrophic Trump or Cruz presidential run. Like, things probably won't go like they did under Bill, but I don't think it's unreasonable to think that it'll be better than under Obama.
I'm not sure about that. I don't follow as closely as you do, but I'm under the impression that Hillary's already more despised among that demographic than Obama is, and he's been having that build up over eight years already while she's not even President yet now. And any hard-righter seen doing anything but directly opposing her has to be seriously worried about getting ousted by an even harder-righter two years down the road, when his/her rabid support base freaks out about their anti-Hillary (albeit largely superstitious) convictions.
Another comparative advantage Obama has is that people actually like him and, to an extent, trust him - which matters. Your typical conservative (or even liberal) voter will be more likely to view a moderate proposal change from Clinton with distrust compared to, say, a more radical one from Obama. Voter perception is going to have a big part in negotiations for any new legislation, even compared to the actual content itself. In that sense, she's walking up to the table at a serious disadvantage before the talks have even begun, as it were.
Another comparative advantage Obama has is that people actually like him and, to an extent, trust him - which matters. Your typical conservative (or even liberal) voter will be more likely to view a moderate proposal change from Clinton with distrust compared to, say, a more radical one from Obama. Voter perception is going to have a big part in negotiations for any new legislation, even compared to the actual content itself. In that sense, she's walking up to the table at a serious disadvantage before the talks have even begun, as it were.
As someone who lives in the South, I can confirm that Hillary is the single most hated person among the far right, and they don't even think she's a Muslim from Kenya.
I mean, I don't have data to back this up, but this is the impression I get from every far right conservative I've ever met, the way far right politicians talk about her, and all the far right pundits I've seen.
I mean, I don't have data to back this up, but this is the impression I get from every far right conservative I've ever met, the way far right politicians talk about her, and all the far right pundits I've seen.